Merge pull request 'feat(prediction): �� м� �� Ķ�� Է� �� ' (#129 ) from feature/20260326 into develop

docs: 릴리즈 노트 업데이트
feat(prediction): 역추적 분석 엔진 및 동적 파라미터 입력 기능 구현
2026-03-27 15:07:29 +09:00 · 2026-03-27 14:58:36 +09:00 · 2026-03-27 14:57:00 +09:00
--- a/backend/src/prediction/backtrackAnalysisService.ts
+++ b/backend/src/prediction/backtrackAnalysisService.ts
@ -0,0 +1,557 @@
+import { wingPool } from '../db/wingDb.js';
+import { getBacktrack } from './predictionService.js';
+
+const PYTHON_API_URL = process.env.PYTHON_API_URL ?? 'http://localhost:5003';
+const VESSEL_TRACK_API_URL = process.env.VESSEL_TRACK_API_URL ?? 'http://localhost:9090';
+
+// 유종 코드(DB) → OpenDrift 유종 코드 매핑
+const OIL_TYPE_MAP: Record<string, string> = {
+  'BUNKER_C':      'GENERIC BUNKER C',
+  'DIESEL':        'GENERIC DIESEL',
+  'CRUDE_OIL':     'WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE (WTI)',
+  'HEAVY_FUEL_OIL': 'GENERIC HEAVY FUEL OIL',
+  'KEROSENE':      'FUEL OIL NO.1 (KEROSENE)',
+  'GASOLINE':      'GENERIC GASOLINE',
+};
+const POLL_INTERVAL_MS = 3000;
+const POLL_TIMEOUT_MS = 30 * 60 * 1000;
+
+// AIS 선박유형 코드 → 위험도 점수 매핑
+// AIS VESSEL_TP: 80-89=유조선류, 70-79=카고, 30-39=어선
+const VESSEL_TYPE_SCORES: Array<[number, number, number]> = [
+  [80, 89, 1.0],  // 유조선 계열
+  [70, 79, 0.5],  // 화물선 계열
+  [30, 39, 0.3],  // 어선
+];
+
+const RANK_COLORS = ['#ef4444', '#f97316', '#eab308', '#22c55e', '#3b82f6',
+                     '#8b5cf6', '#ec4899', '#14b8a6', '#f59e0b', '#6366f1'];
+
+interface PythonParticle { lat: number; lon: number }
+interface PythonTimeStep {
+  particles: PythonParticle[];
+  center_lat?: number;
+  center_lon?: number;
+  remaining_volume_m3: number;
+  weathered_volume_m3: number;
+  pollution_area_km2: number;
+  beached_volume_m3: number;
+  pollution_coast_length_m: number;
+}
+
+// ============================================================
+// 선박 항적 API 타입
+// ============================================================
+
+interface VesselTrackApiRequest {
+  startTime: string;
+  endTime: string;
+  mode: 'SEQUENTIAL';
+  polygons: Array<{
+    id: string;
+    name: string;
+    coordinates: [number, number][];
+  }>;
+}
+
+interface ChnPrmShipInfo {
+  imo: number;
+  name: string;
+  callsign: string;
+  vesselType: string;
+  lat: number;
+  lon: number;
+  sog: number;
+  cog: number;
+  heading: number;
+  length: number;
+  width: number;
+  draught: number;
+  destination: string;
+  status: string;
+  messageTimestamp: string;
+}
+
+interface VesselTrack {
+  vesselId: string;
+  nationalCode: string;
+  geometry: [number, number][];  // [lon, lat][]
+  speeds: number[];              // knots
+  totalDistance: number;
+  avgSpeed: number;
+  maxSpeed: number;
+  pointCount: number;
+  shipName: string;
+  shipType: string;              // vessel type code string (e.g. "74")
+  shipKindCode: string;
+  chnPrmShipInfo: ChnPrmShipInfo | null;
+  timestamps: string[];          // Unix timestamp strings
+}
+
+interface HitDetail {
+  polygonId: string;
+  polygonName: string;
+  entryTimestamp: number;
+  exitTimestamp: number;
+  hitPointCount: number;
+  visitIndex: number;
+}
+
+interface VesselTrackApiResponse {
+  tracks: VesselTrack[];
+  hitDetails: Record<string, HitDetail[]>;
+  summary: {
+    totalVessels: number;
+    totalPoints: number;
+    mode: string;
+    polygonIds: string[];
+    processingTimeMs: number;
+    cachedDates: string[];
+    totalCachedVessels: number;
+  };
+}
+
+// haversine 거리 계산 (NM)
+function haversineNm(lat1: number, lon1: number, lat2: number, lon2: number): number {
+  const R = 3440.065; // NM
+  const dLat = (lat2 - lat1) * Math.PI / 180;
+  const dLon = (lon2 - lon1) * Math.PI / 180;
+  const a = Math.sin(dLat / 2) ** 2 +
+    Math.cos(lat1 * Math.PI / 180) * Math.cos(lat2 * Math.PI / 180) * Math.sin(dLon / 2) ** 2;
+  return R * 2 * Math.atan2(Math.sqrt(a), Math.sqrt(1 - a));
+}
+
+// anlysRange 파싱: '12', '±12시간', '12h' 등 → 숫자
+function parseAnalysisHours(anlysRange: string): number {
+  const m = anlysRange.match(/(\d+)/);
+  return m ? parseInt(m[1], 10) : 12;
+}
+
+// 시간 포맷: Date → 'HH:MM' 형식 (KST)
+function toTimeLabel(d: Date): string {
+  const kst = new Date(d.getTime() + 9 * 3600000);
+  return `${String(kst.getUTCHours()).padStart(2, '0')}:${String(kst.getUTCMinutes()).padStart(2, '0')}`;
+}
+
+// Python 결과 폴링 (DONE까지 대기)
+async function pollUntilDone(jobId: string): Promise<PythonTimeStep[]> {
+  const deadline = Date.now() + POLL_TIMEOUT_MS;
+  while (Date.now() < deadline) {
+    await new Promise<void>(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, POLL_INTERVAL_MS));
+    try {
+      const res = await fetch(`${PYTHON_API_URL}/status/${jobId}`, {
+        signal: AbortSignal.timeout(5000),
+      });
+      if (!res.ok) continue;
+      const data = await res.json() as { status: string; result?: PythonTimeStep[]; error?: string };
+      if (data.status === 'DONE' && data.result) return data.result;
+      if (data.status === 'ERROR') throw new Error(data.error ?? 'Python 분석 오류');
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (e instanceof Error && e.message !== 'fetch failed') throw e;
+    }
+  }
+  throw new Error('역추적 분석 시간 초과 (30분)');
+}
+
+// 파티클 스텝별 탐색 영역 계산
+function computeParticleSteps(
+  rawResult: PythonTimeStep[],
+  spillTime: Date,
+  anlysHours: number,
+): Array<{ stepIdx: number; atTime: Date; centroid: { lat: number; lon: number }; radiusNm: number }> {
+  const totalSteps = rawResult.length;
+  const msPerStep = anlysHours * 3600000 / Math.max(totalSteps - 1, 1);
+
+  return rawResult.map((step, idx) => {
+    const atTime = new Date(spillTime.getTime() - idx * msPerStep);
+    const particles = step.particles.filter(p => p.lat != null && p.lon != null);
+
+    let centroid: { lat: number; lon: number };
+    let radiusNm: number;
+
+    if (particles.length === 0) {
+      centroid = { lat: step.center_lat ?? 0, lon: step.center_lon ?? 0 };
+      radiusNm = 5;
+    } else {
+      centroid = {
+        lat: particles.reduce((s, p) => s + p.lat, 0) / particles.length,
+        lon: particles.reduce((s, p) => s + p.lon, 0) / particles.length,
+      };
+      const maxDist = Math.max(...particles.map(p => haversineNm(centroid.lat, centroid.lon, p.lat, p.lon)));
+      radiusNm = Math.max(maxDist * 1.2, 2); // 최소 2 NM
+    }
+
+    return { stepIdx: idx, atTime, centroid, radiusNm };
+  });
+}
+
+// 선박유형 점수
+function getVesselTypeScore(vesselTp: number | null): number {
+  if (vesselTp == null) return 0.3;
+  for (const [min, max, score] of VESSEL_TYPE_SCORES) {
+    if (vesselTp >= min && vesselTp <= max) return score;
+  }
+  return 0.2;
+}
+
+// 급감속 감지: 속도 배열에서 50% 이상 감소 여부 → 0~1
+function detectSpeedDrop(speeds: number[]): number {
+  const valid = speeds.filter(s => s > 0);
+  if (valid.length < 2) return 0;
+  let maxDrop = 0;
+  for (let i = 1; i < valid.length; i++) {
+    const drop = (valid[i - 1] - valid[i]) / valid[i - 1];
+    if (drop > maxDrop) maxDrop = drop;
+  }
+  return maxDrop > 0.5 ? Math.min(1, maxDrop) : 0;
+}
+
+// AIS 단절 감지: 타임스탬프 배열에서 평균 간격의 3배 이상 gap 존재 여부
+function detectAisGapFromTimestamps(timestamps: string[]): boolean {
+  if (timestamps.length < 3) return false;
+  const sorted = timestamps.map(Number).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const avgInterval = (sorted[sorted.length - 1] - sorted[0]) / (sorted.length - 1);
+  for (let i = 1; i < sorted.length; i++) {
+    if (sorted[i] - sorted[i - 1] > avgInterval * 3) return true;
+  }
+  return false;
+}
+
+function vesselTypeToLabel(tp: number | null): string {
+  if (tp == null) return '미분류';
+  if (tp >= 80 && tp <= 89) return '유조선';
+  if (tp >= 70 && tp <= 79) return '화물선';
+  if (tp >= 30 && tp <= 39) return '어선';
+  if (tp >= 60 && tp <= 69) return '여객선';
+  if (tp >= 90 && tp <= 99) return '특수선';
+  return `선박(${tp})`;
+}
+
+interface RankedVessel {
+  rank: number;
+  name: string;
+  imo: string;
+  type: string;
+  flag: string;
+  flagCountry: string;
+  probability: number;
+  closestTime: string;
+  closestDistance: number;
+  speedChange: string;
+  aisStatus: string;
+  description: string;
+  color: string;
+  mmsi: string;
+  _rawScore: number;
+  _track: VesselTrack;
+  _minDistIdx: number;
+}
+
+// 탐색 폴리곤 빌드 (사고위치 + 탐색반경 → 바운딩 박스)
+function buildSearchPolygon(
+  lat: number,
+  lon: number,
+  radiusNm: number,
+): { id: string; name: string; coordinates: [number, number][] } {
+  const latDelta = radiusNm / 60;
+  const lonDelta = radiusNm / (60 * Math.cos(lat * Math.PI / 180));
+  return {
+    id: 'zone_0',
+    name: '역추적 탐색구역',
+    coordinates: [
+      [lon - lonDelta, lat - latDelta],
+      [lon + lonDelta, lat - latDelta],
+      [lon + lonDelta, lat + latDelta],
+      [lon - lonDelta, lat + latDelta],
+      [lon - lonDelta, lat - latDelta],
+    ],
+  };
+}
+
+// 선박 항적 API 호출
+async function fetchVesselTracks(
+  spillLat: number,
+  spillLon: number,
+  srchRadiusNm: number,
+  startTime: Date,
+  endTime: Date,
+): Promise<VesselTrackApiResponse> {
+  const polygon = buildSearchPolygon(spillLat, spillLon, srchRadiusNm);
+  const toApiDatetime = (d: Date) => d.toISOString().substring(0, 19);
+
+  const body: VesselTrackApiRequest = {
+    startTime: toApiDatetime(startTime),
+    endTime: toApiDatetime(endTime),
+    mode: 'SEQUENTIAL',
+    polygons: [polygon],
+  };
+
+  console.log(body);
+
+  const res = await fetch(`${VESSEL_TRACK_API_URL}`, {
+    method: 'POST',
+    headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+    body: JSON.stringify(body),
+  });
+
+  if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`선박 항적 API 오류: ${res.status}`);
+  return res.json() as Promise<VesselTrackApiResponse>;
+}
+
+// 스코어링 + 순위 (선박 항적 API 응답 기반)
+function scoreAndRankVesselsFromApi(
+  tracks: VesselTrack[],
+  hitDetails: Record<string, HitDetail[]>,
+  spillLat: number,
+  spillLon: number,
+  srchRadiusNm: number,
+  anlysHours: number,
+): RankedVessel[] {
+  const anlysWindowSec = anlysHours * 3600;
+
+  const scored = tracks.map(track => {
+    // 1. spatialScore (40%): 사고 지점과의 최근접 거리
+    let minDist = Infinity;
+    let minDistIdx = 0;
+    track.geometry.forEach(([lon, lat], idx) => {
+      const d = haversineNm(lat, lon, spillLat, spillLon);
+      if (d < minDist) { minDist = d; minDistIdx = idx; }
+    });
+    const spatialScore = Math.max(0, 1 - minDist / srchRadiusNm);
+
+    // 2. temporalScore (25%): 탐색구역 체류시간 / 분석 윈도우
+    const hits = hitDetails[track.vesselId] ?? [];
+    const totalTimeInZoneSec = hits.reduce((sum, h) => sum + (h.exitTimestamp - h.entryTimestamp), 0);
+    const temporalScore = Math.min(1, totalTimeInZoneSec / anlysWindowSec);
+
+    // 3. behaviorScore (20%): 급감속 + AIS 단절
+    const speedDrop = detectSpeedDrop(track.speeds);
+    const aisGap = detectAisGapFromTimestamps(track.timestamps);
+    const behaviorScore = Math.min(1, speedDrop * 0.6 + (aisGap ? 0.4 : 0));
+
+    // 4. vesselTypeScore (15%): 선박 유형별 위험도
+    const vesselTpRaw = parseInt(track.shipType ?? '', 10);
+    const vesselTp = isNaN(vesselTpRaw) ? null : vesselTpRaw;
+    const vesselTypeScore = getVesselTypeScore(vesselTp);
+
+    const rawScore = 0.40 * spatialScore + 0.25 * temporalScore + 0.20 * behaviorScore + 0.15 * vesselTypeScore;
+
+    const speedChangeLabel = speedDrop > 0.5 ? '급감속' : speedDrop > 0.2 ? '감속' : '정상';
+    const aisStatusLabel = aisGap ? 'AIS단절' : '정상';
+
+    const closestTs = track.timestamps[minDistIdx];
+    const closestDate = closestTs ? new Date(Number(closestTs) * 1000) : new Date();
+
+    const descParts: string[] = [];
+    if (speedDrop > 0.5) descParts.push(`${toTimeLabel(closestDate)} 급감속 감지`);
+    if (aisGap) descParts.push('AIS 신호 단절 구간 존재');
+    if (minDist < 1) descParts.push(`최근접 ${minDist.toFixed(2)} NM 이내 통과`);
+
+    const imo = track.chnPrmShipInfo?.imo?.toString() ?? '';
+    const vesselName = track.shipName || track.chnPrmShipInfo?.name || `MMSI:${track.vesselId}`;
+
+    return {
+      mmsi: track.vesselId,
+      imo,
+      name: vesselName,
+      type: vesselTypeToLabel(vesselTp),
+      flag: track.nationalCode ?? '',
+      flagCountry: track.nationalCode ?? '',
+      closestTime: toTimeLabel(closestDate),
+      closestDistance: Math.round(minDist * 100) / 100,
+      speedChange: speedChangeLabel,
+      aisStatus: aisStatusLabel,
+      description: descParts.join(' · '),
+      probability: 0,
+      rank: 0,
+      color: '',
+      _rawScore: rawScore,
+      _track: track,
+      _minDistIdx: minDistIdx,
+    };
+  });
+
+  scored.sort((a, b) => b._rawScore - a._rawScore);
+  const top = scored.slice(0, 10);
+  const maxScore = top[0]?._rawScore ?? 1;
+
+  return top.map((v, i) => ({
+    ...v,
+    rank: i + 1,
+    probability: Math.round((v._rawScore / maxScore) * 95 * 10) / 10,
+    color: RANK_COLORS[i] ?? '#888888',
+  }));
+}
+
+interface ReplayShip {
+  vesselName: string;
+  color: string;
+  path: Array<{ lat: number; lon: number }>;
+  speedLabels: string[];
+}
+
+// 리플레이용 선박 경로 빌드 (상위 5척, API geometry 직접 사용)
+function buildReplayShipsFromApi(ranked: RankedVessel[]): ReplayShip[] {
+  return ranked.slice(0, 5).map(v => ({
+    vesselName: v.name,
+    color: v.color,
+    path: v._track.geometry.map(([lon, lat]) => ({ lat, lon })),
+    speedLabels: v._track.speeds.map(s => `${s.toFixed(1)} kts`),
+  }));
+}
+
+interface CollisionEvent {
+  position: { lat: number; lon: number };
+  timeLabel: string;
+  progressPercent: number;
+}
+
+// 최고 확률 선박의 최근접 지점 이벤트
+function findCollisionEventFromApi(
+  ranked: RankedVessel[],
+  startTime: Date,
+  endTime: Date,
+): CollisionEvent | null {
+  const top = ranked[0];
+  if (!top) return null;
+
+  const idx = top._minDistIdx;
+  const ts = top._track.timestamps[idx];
+  const pointDate = ts ? new Date(Number(ts) * 1000) : new Date();
+
+  const totalMs = endTime.getTime() - startTime.getTime();
+  const pointMs = pointDate.getTime() - startTime.getTime();
+  const progressPercent = totalMs > 0
+    ? Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round((pointMs / totalMs) * 100)))
+    : 0;
+
+  const point = top._track.geometry[idx];
+  const [lon, lat] = point ?? [0, 0];
+
+  return {
+    position: { lat, lon },
+    timeLabel: toTimeLabel(pointDate) + ' 최근접',
+    progressPercent,
+  };
+}
+
+// ============================================================
+// 메인 분석 함수 (외부에서 호출)
+// ============================================================
+export async function runBacktrackAnalysis(backtrackSn: number): Promise<void> {
+  await wingPool.query(
+    `UPDATE wing.BACKTRACK SET EXEC_STTS_CD='RUNNING' WHERE BACKTRACK_SN=$1`,
+    [backtrackSn],
+  );
+
+  try {
+    const bt = await getBacktrack(backtrackSn);
+    if (!bt || bt.lat == null || bt.lon == null || !bt.estSpilDtm) {
+      throw new Error('역추적 레코드 정보 불충분 (lat/lon/estSpilDtm 필요)');
+    }
+
+    const anlysHours = parseAnalysisHours(bt.anlysRange ?? '12');
+    const spillTime = new Date(bt.estSpilDtm);
+    const analysisStart = new Date(spillTime.getTime() - anlysHours * 3600000);
+
+    // SPIL_DATA에서 유출량 및 유종 조회
+    let matVol: number | null = null;
+    let matTy: string | undefined;
+    try {
+      const { rows: spillRows } = await wingPool.query(
+        `SELECT SPIL_QTY, OIL_TP_CD FROM wing.SPIL_DATA WHERE ACDNT_SN=$1 ORDER BY SPIL_DATA_SN ASC LIMIT 1`,
+        [bt.acdntSn],
+      );
+      if (spillRows.length > 0) {
+        const row = spillRows[0] as Record<string, unknown>;
+        matVol = row['spil_qty'] != null ? Number(row['spil_qty']) : null;
+        const oilTpCd = row['oil_tp_cd'] as string | null;
+        matTy = oilTpCd ? (OIL_TYPE_MAP[oilTpCd] ?? oilTpCd) : undefined;
+      }
+    } catch (spillErr) {
+      console.warn('[backtrack] SPIL_DATA 조회 실패, matVol 없이 진행:', spillErr);
+    }
+
+    // Python 역방향 시뮬레이션 실행 (파티클 시각화용)
+    let rawResult: PythonTimeStep[];
+    try {
+      const pythonRes = await fetch(`${PYTHON_API_URL}/run-model-backward`, {
+        method: 'POST',
+        headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+        body: JSON.stringify({
+          lat: bt.lat,
+          lon: bt.lon,
+          startTime: spillTime.toISOString(),
+          runTime: anlysHours,
+          matVol: matVol ?? 1,
+          matTy,
+          name: `BACKTRACK_${backtrackSn}`,
+        }),
+        signal: AbortSignal.timeout(30000),
+      });
+      if (!pythonRes.ok) throw new Error(`Python 서버 오류: ${pythonRes.status}`);
+      const { job_id } = await pythonRes.json() as { job_id: string };
+      rawResult = await pollUntilDone(job_id);
+    } catch (pyErr) {
+      // Python 미연동 시 폴백: 빈 파티클 스텝 생성
+      console.warn('[backtrack] Python 미연동 — 폴백 모드 사용:', pyErr);
+      rawResult = Array.from({ length: anlysHours + 1 }, () => ({
+        particles: [],
+        remaining_volume_m3: 0,
+        weathered_volume_m3: 0,
+        pollution_area_km2: 0,
+        beached_volume_m3: 0,
+        pollution_coast_length_m: 0,
+      }));
+    }
+
+    const steps = computeParticleSteps(rawResult, spillTime, anlysHours);
+    if (rawResult.every(s => s.particles.length === 0)) {
+      steps.forEach((s, i) => {
+        s.centroid = { lat: bt.lat!, lon: bt.lon! };
+        s.radiusNm = (bt.srchRadiusNm ?? 10) + i * 2;
+      });
+    }
+
+    // 선박 항적 API 호출
+    const srchRadius = bt.srchRadiusNm ?? 10;
+    const apiResponse = await fetchVesselTracks(
+      bt.lat, bt.lon, srchRadius, analysisStart, spillTime,
+    );
+
+    const totalVessels = apiResponse.summary.totalVessels;
+    const ranked = scoreAndRankVesselsFromApi(
+      apiResponse.tracks,
+      apiResponse.hitDetails,
+      bt.lat, bt.lon, srchRadius, anlysHours,
+    );
+    const replayShips = buildReplayShipsFromApi(ranked);
+    const collisionEvent = findCollisionEventFromApi(ranked, analysisStart, spillTime);
+
+    const timeRange = {
+      start: analysisStart.toISOString(),
+      end: spillTime.toISOString(),
+    };
+
+    // vessels에서 내부 필드 제거
+    const vessels = ranked.map(({ _rawScore: _r, _track: _t, _minDistIdx: _m, ...v }) => v);
+
+    const rsltData = { vessels, replayShips, collisionEvent, timeRange };
+
+    await wingPool.query(
+      `UPDATE wing.BACKTRACK
+       SET EXEC_STTS_CD='COMPLETED', RSLT_DATA=$1, TOTAL_VESSELS=$2
+       WHERE BACKTRACK_SN=$3`,
+      [JSON.stringify(rsltData), totalVessels, backtrackSn],
+    );
+
+    console.info(`[backtrack] 분석 완료 SN=${backtrackSn}, 후보선박=${ranked.length}/${totalVessels}`);
+  } catch (err) {
+    console.error('[backtrack] 분석 실패:', err);
+    const errMsg = err instanceof Error ? err.message : '알 수 없는 오류';
+    await wingPool.query(
+      `UPDATE wing.BACKTRACK SET EXEC_STTS_CD='FAILED', RSLT_DATA=$1 WHERE BACKTRACK_SN=$2`,
+      [JSON.stringify({ error: errMsg }), backtrackSn],
+    );
+  }
+}
--- a/backend/src/prediction/predictionService.ts
+++ b/backend/src/prediction/predictionService.ts
@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { wingPool } from '../db/wingDb.js';
+import { runBacktrackAnalysis } from './backtrackAnalysisService.js';

 interface PredictionAnalysis {
  acdntSn: number;
@ -373,7 +374,7 @@ function rowToBacktrack(r: Record<string, unknown>): BacktrackResult {
  return {
    backtrackSn: Number(r['backtrack_sn']),
    acdntSn: Number(r['acdnt_sn']),
-    estSpilDtm: r['est_spil_dtm'] ? String(r['est_spil_dtm']) : null,
+    estSpilDtm: r['est_spil_dtm'] ? new Date(r['est_spil_dtm'] as string | Date).toISOString() : null,
    anlysRange: r['anlys_range'] ? String(r['anlys_range']) : null,
    lon: r['lon'] != null ? parseFloat(String(r['lon'])) : null,
    lat: r['lat'] != null ? parseFloat(String(r['lat'])) : null,
@ -387,15 +388,15 @@ function rowToBacktrack(r: Record<string, unknown>): BacktrackResult {

 export async function createBacktrack(
  input: CreateBacktrackInput,
-): Promise<{ backtrackSn: number }> {
+): Promise<BacktrackResult> {
  const { acdntSn, lat, lon, estSpilDtm, anlysRange, srchRadiusNm } = input;

  const sql = `
    INSERT INTO BACKTRACK (ACDNT_SN, LAT, LON, GEOM, LOC_DC, EST_SPIL_DTM, ANLYS_RANGE, SRCH_RADIUS_NM, EXEC_STTS_CD)
    VALUES (
-      $1, $2, $3,
-      ST_SetSRID(ST_MakePoint($3::float, $2::float), 4326),
-      $3 || ' + ' || $2,
+      $1, $2::double precision, $3::double precision,
+      ST_SetSRID(ST_MakePoint($3::double precision, $2::double precision), 4326),
+      $3::text || ' + ' || $2::text,
      $4, $5, $6, 'PENDING'
    )
    RETURNING BACKTRACK_SN
@ -405,8 +406,14 @@ export async function createBacktrack(
    acdntSn, lat, lon,
    estSpilDtm || null, anlysRange || null, srchRadiusNm || null,
  ]);
+  const backtrackSn = Number((rows[0] as Record<string, unknown>)['backtrack_sn']);

-  return { backtrackSn: Number((rows[0] as Record<string, unknown>)['backtrack_sn']) };
+  // 동기 분석 (완료까지 대기 후 결과 반환)
+  await runBacktrackAnalysis(backtrackSn);
+
+  const result = await getBacktrack(backtrackSn);
+  if (!result) throw new Error('역추적 결과를 찾을 수 없습니다');
+  return result;
 }

 export async function saveBoomLine(input: SaveBoomLineInput): Promise<{ boomLineSn: number }> {
--- a/database/migration/030_ais_track.sql
+++ b/database/migration/030_ais_track.sql
@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+-- AIS 선박 위치 이력 테이블
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS wing.AIS_TRACK (
+  AIS_TRACK_SN  SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
+  MMSI          VARCHAR(12) NOT NULL,
+  IMO           VARCHAR(12),
+  VESSEL_NM     VARCHAR(100),
+  VESSEL_TP     SMALLINT,
+  LAT           NUMERIC(9,6),
+  LON           NUMERIC(10,6),
+  SPEED         NUMERIC(5,1),
+  COURSE        NUMERIC(5,1),
+  NAV_STATUS    SMALLINT,
+  OBS_DTM       TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
+  GEOM          GEOMETRY(Point, 4326),
+  SRC_CD        VARCHAR(20) DEFAULT 'API'
+);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ais_track_mmsi ON wing.AIS_TRACK(MMSI);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ais_track_obs_dtm ON wing.AIS_TRACK(OBS_DTM);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ais_track_geom ON wing.AIS_TRACK USING GIST(GEOM);
--- a/docs/RELEASE-NOTES.md
+++ b/docs/RELEASE-NOTES.md
@ -4,6 +4,16 @@

 ## [Unreleased]

+### 추가
+- 역추적: 사용자가 유출 추정 시각/분석 범위/탐색 반경을 직접 입력하는 분석 파라미터 UI 구현
+- 역추적: AIS 기반 선박 항적 API 연동 및 가중치 위험도 점수 산정 엔진 (backtrackAnalysisService)
+- 역추적: 상위 5척 선박 경로 및 충돌 이벤트 리플레이 데이터 생성
+- 역추적: 리플레이 바에 실제 분석 시간 범위 동적 표시
+- DB: AIS_TRACK 테이블 추가 (선박 항적 이력, GIS 공간 인덱스)
+
+### 변경
+- 역추적: 생성 API 응답을 BacktrackResult로 통합 (재조회 불필요)
+
 ## [2026-03-26]

 ### 추가
--- a/frontend/src/common/components/map/BacktrackReplayBar.tsx
+++ b/frontend/src/common/components/map/BacktrackReplayBar.tsx
@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ interface BacktrackReplayBarProps {
  onClose: () => void
  replayShips: ReplayShip[]
  collisionEvent: CollisionEvent | null
+  replayTimeRange?: { start: string; end: string }
 }

 export function BacktrackReplayBar({
@ -24,16 +25,44 @@ export function BacktrackReplayBar({
  onClose,
  replayShips,
  collisionEvent,
+  replayTimeRange,
 }: BacktrackReplayBarProps) {
  const progress = (replayFrame / totalFrames) * 100

-  // Time calculation: 12-hour span from 18:30 to 06:30
-  const hours = 18.5 + (replayFrame / totalFrames) * 12
-  const displayHours = hours >= 24 ? hours - 24 : hours
-  const h = Math.floor(displayHours)
-  const m = Math.round((displayHours - h) * 60)
-  const dayLabel = hours >= 24 ? '02-10' : '02-09'
-  const currentTimeLabel = `${dayLabel} ${String(h).padStart(2, '0')}:${String(m).padStart(2, '0')} KST`
+  // 타임 계산
+  let startLabel: string
+  let endLabel: string
+  let currentTimeLabel: string
+
+  if (replayTimeRange) {
+    const startMs = new Date(replayTimeRange.start).getTime()
+    const endMs = new Date(replayTimeRange.end).getTime()
+    const currentMs = startMs + (replayFrame / totalFrames) * (endMs - startMs)
+    const fmt = (ms: number) => {
+      const d = new Date(ms + 9 * 3600000) // KST
+      const mo = String(d.getUTCMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')
+      const day = String(d.getUTCDate()).padStart(2, '0')
+      const hh = String(d.getUTCHours()).padStart(2, '0')
+      const mm = String(d.getUTCMinutes()).padStart(2, '0')
+      return { date: `${mo}-${day}`, time: `${hh}:${mm}` }
+    }
+    const startFmt = fmt(startMs)
+    const endFmt = fmt(endMs)
+    const curFmt = fmt(currentMs)
+    startLabel = `${startFmt.date} ${startFmt.time}`
+    endLabel = `${endFmt.date} ${endFmt.time}`
+    currentTimeLabel = `${curFmt.date} ${curFmt.time} KST`
+  } else {
+    // 기존 하드코딩 폴백
+    const hours = 18.5 + (replayFrame / totalFrames) * 12
+    const displayHours = hours >= 24 ? hours - 24 : hours
+    const h = Math.floor(displayHours)
+    const m = Math.round((displayHours - h) * 60)
+    const dayLabel = hours >= 24 ? '02-10' : '02-09'
+    startLabel = '18:30'
+    endLabel = '06:30'
+    currentTimeLabel = `${dayLabel} ${String(h).padStart(2, '0')}:${String(m).padStart(2, '0')} KST`
+  }

  const handleSeekClick = (e: React.MouseEvent<HTMLDivElement>) => {
    const rect = e.currentTarget.getBoundingClientRect()
@ -160,9 +189,9 @@ export function BacktrackReplayBar({

          {/* Time labels */}
          <div className="flex justify-between text-[9px] font-mono">
-            <span className="text-text-3">18:30</span>
+            <span className="text-text-3">{startLabel}</span>
            <span className="font-semibold text-primary-purple">{currentTimeLabel}</span>
-            <span className="text-text-3">06:30</span>
+            <span className="text-text-3">{endLabel}</span>
          </div>
        </div>
      </div>
--- a/frontend/src/common/types/backtrack.ts
+++ b/frontend/src/common/types/backtrack.ts
@ -43,3 +43,16 @@ export interface CollisionEvent {
 export type BacktrackPhase = 'conditions' | 'analyzing' | 'results' | 'replay'

 export const TOTAL_REPLAY_FRAMES = 120
+
+// 역추적 분석 실행 시 사용자가 입력하는 조건
+export interface BacktrackInputConditions {
+  estimatedSpillTime: string  // datetime-local input 값 (YYYY-MM-DDTHH:mm)
+  analysisRange: string       // '6', '12', '24' (시간 단위)
+  searchRadius: number        // NM 단위
+}
+
+// RSLT_DATA에 저장되는 분석 결과 타임 레인지
+export interface BacktrackTimeRange {
+  start: string  // ISO 문자열
+  end: string    // ISO 문자열
+}
--- a/frontend/src/tabs/prediction/components/BacktrackModal.tsx
+++ b/frontend/src/tabs/prediction/components/BacktrackModal.tsx
@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
-import { useRef, useEffect } from 'react'
-import type { BacktrackPhase, BacktrackVessel, BacktrackConditions } from '@common/types/backtrack'
+import { useRef, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import type { BacktrackPhase, BacktrackVessel, BacktrackConditions, BacktrackInputConditions } from '@common/types/backtrack'

 interface BacktrackModalProps {
  isOpen: boolean
@ -7,10 +7,24 @@ interface BacktrackModalProps {
  phase: BacktrackPhase
  conditions: BacktrackConditions
  vessels: BacktrackVessel[]
-  onRunAnalysis: () => void
+  onRunAnalysis: (input: BacktrackInputConditions) => void
  onStartReplay: () => void
 }

+const toDateTimeLocalValue = (raw: string): string => {
+  if (!raw) return ''
+  const d = new Date(raw)
+  if (isNaN(d.getTime())) return ''
+  const pad = (n: number) => String(n).padStart(2, '0')
+  return `${d.getFullYear()}-${pad(d.getMonth() + 1)}-${pad(d.getDate())}T${pad(d.getHours())}:${pad(d.getMinutes())}`
+}
+
+const nowDateTimeLocalValue = (): string => {
+  const d = new Date()
+  const pad = (n: number) => String(n).padStart(2, '0')
+  return `${d.getFullYear()}-${pad(d.getMonth() + 1)}-${pad(d.getDate())}T${pad(d.getHours())}:${pad(d.getMinutes())}`
+}
+
 export function BacktrackModal({
  isOpen,
  onClose,
@ -22,6 +36,11 @@ export function BacktrackModal({
 }: BacktrackModalProps) {
  const backdropRef = useRef<HTMLDivElement>(null)

+  const [inputTimeOverride, setInputTime] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
+  const inputTime = inputTimeOverride ?? toDateTimeLocalValue(conditions.estimatedSpillTime) ?? nowDateTimeLocalValue()
+  const [inputRange, setInputRange] = useState('12')
+  const [inputRadius, setInputRadius] = useState(10)
+
  useEffect(() => {
    const handler = (e: MouseEvent) => {
      if (e.target === backdropRef.current) onClose()
@ -32,6 +51,21 @@ export function BacktrackModal({

  if (!isOpen) return null

+  const inputDisabled = phase !== 'conditions'
+
+  const inputStyle: React.CSSProperties = {
+    width: '100%',
+    padding: '6px 8px',
+    background: 'var(--bg3)',
+    border: '1px solid var(--bd)',
+    borderRadius: '6px',
+    color: 'var(--t1)',
+    fontSize: '11px',
+    fontFamily: 'var(--fM)',
+    outline: 'none',
+    opacity: inputDisabled ? 0.6 : 1,
+  }
+
  return (
    <div
      ref={backdropRef}
@ -92,24 +126,80 @@ export function BacktrackModal({
            <div style={{
              display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 1fr', gap: '8px',
            }}>
-              {[
-                { label: '유출 추정 시각', value: conditions.estimatedSpillTime },
-                { label: '분석 범위', value: conditions.analysisRange },
-                { label: '탐색 반경', value: conditions.searchRadius },
-                { label: '유출 위치', value: `${conditions.spillLocation.lat.toFixed(4)}°N, ${conditions.spillLocation.lon.toFixed(4)}°E` },
-              ].map((item, i) => (
-                <div key={i} style={{
-                  padding: '10px 12px', background: 'var(--bg3)',
-                  borderRadius: '8px',
-                }} className="border border-border">
-                  <div className="text-[9px] text-text-3 mb-1">
-                    {item.label}
-                  </div>
-                  <div className="text-[12px] font-semibold font-mono">
-                    {item.value}
-                  </div>
+              {/* 유출 추정 시각 */}
+              <div style={{
+                padding: '10px 12px', background: 'var(--bg3)',
+                borderRadius: '8px',
+              }} className="border border-border">
+                <div className="text-[9px] text-text-3 mb-1">
+                  유출 추정 시각
                </div>
-              ))}
+                <input
+                  type="datetime-local"
+                  value={inputTime}
+                  onChange={e => setInputTime(e.target.value)}
+                  disabled={inputDisabled}
+                  style={inputStyle}
+                />
+              </div>
+
+              {/* 분석 범위 */}
+              <div style={{
+                padding: '10px 12px', background: 'var(--bg3)',
+                borderRadius: '8px',
+              }} className="border border-border">
+                <div className="text-[9px] text-text-3 mb-1">
+                  분석 범위
+                </div>
+                <select
+                  value={inputRange}
+                  onChange={e => setInputRange(e.target.value)}
+                  disabled={inputDisabled}
+                  style={inputStyle}
+                >
+                  <option value="6">±6시간</option>
+                  <option value="12">±12시간</option>
+                  <option value="24">±24시간</option>
+                </select>
+              </div>
+
+              {/* 탐색 반경 */}
+              <div style={{
+                padding: '10px 12px', background: 'var(--bg3)',
+                borderRadius: '8px',
+              }} className="border border-border">
+                <div className="text-[9px] text-text-3 mb-1">
+                  탐색 반경
+                </div>
+                <div className="flex items-center gap-1">
+                  <input
+                    type="number"
+                    value={inputRadius}
+                    onChange={e => setInputRadius(Number(e.target.value))}
+                    disabled={inputDisabled}
+                    min={1}
+                    max={100}
+                    step={0.5}
+                    style={{ ...inputStyle, flex: 1 }}
+                  />
+                  <span className="text-[10px] text-text-3 shrink-0">NM</span>
+                </div>
+              </div>
+
+              {/* 유출 위치 */}
+              <div style={{
+                padding: '10px 12px', background: 'var(--bg3)',
+                borderRadius: '8px',
+              }} className="border border-border">
+                <div className="text-[9px] text-text-3 mb-1">
+                  유출 위치
+                </div>
+                <div className="text-[12px] font-semibold font-mono">
+                  {conditions.spillLocation.lat.toFixed(4)}°N, {conditions.spillLocation.lon.toFixed(4)}°E
+                </div>
+              </div>
+
+              {/* 분석 대상 선박 */}
              <div style={{
                padding: '10px 12px', background: 'var(--bg3)',
                border: '1px solid rgba(168,85,247,0.3)', borderRadius: '8px',
@ -155,7 +245,7 @@ export function BacktrackModal({
        }} className="border-t border-border flex gap-2">
          {phase === 'conditions' && (
            <button
-              onClick={onRunAnalysis}
+              onClick={() => onRunAnalysis({ estimatedSpillTime: inputTime, analysisRange: inputRange, searchRadius: inputRadius })}
              style={{
                padding: '12px',
                borderRadius: '8px',
--- a/frontend/src/tabs/prediction/components/OilSpillView.tsx
+++ b/frontend/src/tabs/prediction/components/OilSpillView.tsx
@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ import { useSubMenu, navigateToTab, setReportGenCategory, setOilReportPayload, t
 import { fetchWeatherSnapshotForCoord } from '@tabs/weather/services/weatherUtils'
 import { useWeatherSnapshotStore } from '@common/store/weatherSnapshotStore'
 import type { BoomLine, AlgorithmSettings, ContainmentResult, BoomLineCoord } from '@common/types/boomLine'
-import type { BacktrackPhase, BacktrackVessel, BacktrackConditions, ReplayShip, CollisionEvent } from '@common/types/backtrack'
+import type { BacktrackPhase, BacktrackVessel, BacktrackConditions, BacktrackInputConditions, ReplayShip, CollisionEvent } from '@common/types/backtrack'
 import { TOTAL_REPLAY_FRAMES } from '@common/types/backtrack'
 import { fetchBacktrackByAcdnt, createBacktrack, fetchPredictionDetail, fetchAnalysisTrajectory, fetchSensitiveResources, fetchSensitiveResourcesGeojson } from '../services/predictionApi'
 import type { CenterPoint, HydrDataStep, ImageAnalyzeResult, OilParticle, PredictionDetail, RunModelSyncResponse, SimulationSummary, SensitiveResourceCategory, SensitiveResourceFeatureCollection, WindPoint } from '../services/predictionApi'
@ -193,6 +193,7 @@ export function OilSpillView() {
  })
  const [replayShips, setReplayShips] = useState<ReplayShip[]>([])
  const [collisionEvent, setCollisionEvent] = useState<CollisionEvent | null>(null)
+  const [replayTimeRange, setReplayTimeRange] = useState<{ start: string; end: string } | null>(null)

  // 재계산 상태
  const [recalcModalOpen, setRecalcModalOpen] = useState(false)
@ -235,7 +236,7 @@ export function OilSpillView() {
  const loadBacktrackData = useCallback(async (acdntSn: number) => {
    try {
      const bt = await fetchBacktrackByAcdnt(acdntSn)
-      if (bt && bt.execSttsCd === 'completed' && bt.rsltData) {
+      if (bt && bt.execSttsCd === 'COMPLETED' && bt.rsltData) {
        const rslt = bt.rsltData as Record<string, unknown>
        if (Array.isArray(rslt.vessels)) {
          setBacktrackVessels(rslt.vessels as BacktrackVessel[])
@ -246,6 +247,9 @@ export function OilSpillView() {
        if (rslt.collisionEvent) {
          setCollisionEvent(rslt.collisionEvent as CollisionEvent)
        }
+        if (rslt['timeRange']) {
+          setReplayTimeRange(rslt['timeRange'] as { start: string; end: string })
+        }
        setBacktrackConditions({
          estimatedSpillTime: bt.estSpilDtm ? new Date(bt.estSpilDtm).toLocaleString('ko-KR', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit' }) : '',
          analysisRange: bt.anlysRange || '±12시간',
@ -272,6 +276,9 @@ export function OilSpillView() {
    setBacktrackConditions(prev => ({
      ...prev,
      spillLocation: incidentCoord ?? prev.spillLocation,
+      estimatedSpillTime: selectedAnalysis?.occurredAt
+        ? toLocalDateTimeStr(selectedAnalysis.occurredAt)
+        : prev.estimatedSpillTime,
    }))
    if (selectedAnalysis) {
      loadBacktrackData(selectedAnalysis.acdntSn)
@ -281,39 +288,31 @@ export function OilSpillView() {
    }
  }

-  const handleRunBacktrackAnalysis = async () => {
-    if (!incidentCoord) return
+  const handleRunBacktrackAnalysis = async (input: BacktrackInputConditions) => {
+    if (!incidentCoord || !selectedAnalysis) return
    setBacktrackPhase('analyzing')
    try {
-      if (selectedAnalysis) {
-        const { backtrackSn } = await createBacktrack({
-          acdntSn: selectedAnalysis.acdntSn,
-          lon: incidentCoord.lon,
-          lat: incidentCoord.lat,
-        })
-        // 생성 후 기존 결과 로딩 (시드 데이터 또는 엔진 처리 결과)
-        const bt = await fetchBacktrackByAcdnt(selectedAnalysis.acdntSn)
-        if (bt && bt.rsltData) {
-          const rslt = bt.rsltData as Record<string, unknown>
-          if (Array.isArray(rslt.vessels)) {
-            setBacktrackVessels(rslt.vessels as BacktrackVessel[])
-          }
-          if (Array.isArray(rslt.replayShips)) {
-            setReplayShips(rslt.replayShips as ReplayShip[])
-          }
-          if (rslt.collisionEvent) {
-            setCollisionEvent(rslt.collisionEvent as CollisionEvent)
-          }
-          setBacktrackConditions(prev => ({
-            ...prev,
-            totalVessels: bt.totalVessels || 0,
-          }))
-          setBacktrackPhase('results')
-        } else {
-          // 엔진 미구현 — PENDING 상태, 일단 빈 결과
-          console.info('[prediction] 역추적 생성 완료 (SN:', backtrackSn, '), 엔진 미구현')
-          setBacktrackPhase('conditions')
-        }
+      const anlysRangeStr = `±${input.analysisRange}시간`
+      const bt = await createBacktrack({
+        acdntSn: selectedAnalysis.acdntSn,
+        lon: incidentCoord.lon,
+        lat: incidentCoord.lat,
+        estSpilDtm: input.estimatedSpillTime ? new Date(input.estimatedSpillTime).toISOString() : undefined,
+        anlysRange: anlysRangeStr,
+        srchRadiusNm: input.searchRadius,
+      })
+
+      if (bt.execSttsCd === 'COMPLETED' && bt.rsltData) {
+        const rslt = bt.rsltData as Record<string, unknown>
+        if (Array.isArray(rslt['vessels'])) setBacktrackVessels(rslt['vessels'] as BacktrackVessel[])
+        if (Array.isArray(rslt['replayShips'])) setReplayShips(rslt['replayShips'] as ReplayShip[])
+        if (rslt['collisionEvent']) setCollisionEvent(rslt['collisionEvent'] as CollisionEvent)
+        if (rslt['timeRange']) setReplayTimeRange(rslt['timeRange'] as { start: string; end: string })
+        setBacktrackConditions(prev => ({ ...prev, totalVessels: bt.totalVessels || 0 }))
+        setBacktrackPhase('results')
+      } else {
+        console.error('[prediction] 역추적 분석 실패:', bt.execSttsCd)
+        setBacktrackPhase('conditions')
      }
    } catch (err) {
      console.error('[prediction] 역추적 분석 실패:', err)
@ -1241,6 +1240,7 @@ export function OilSpillView() {
              onClose={handleCloseReplay}
              replayShips={replayShips}
              collisionEvent={collisionEvent}
+              replayTimeRange={replayTimeRange ?? undefined}
            />
          )}
          </>
--- a/frontend/src/tabs/prediction/services/predictionApi.ts
+++ b/frontend/src/tabs/prediction/services/predictionApi.ts
@ -115,8 +115,9 @@ export const createBacktrack = async (input: {
  lat: number;
  srchRadiusNm?: number;
  anlysRange?: string;
-}): Promise<{ backtrackSn: number }> => {
-  const response = await api.post<{ backtrackSn: number }>('/prediction/backtrack', input);
+  estSpilDtm?: string;
+}): Promise<BacktrackResult> => {
+  const response = await api.post<BacktrackResult>('/prediction/backtrack', input);
  return response.data;
 };