kcg-ai-monitoring/prediction/algorithms/risk.py
htlee e2fc355b2c feat: S2 prediction 분석 엔진 모노레포 이식
iran prediction 47개 Python 파일을 prediction/ 디렉토리로 복제:
- algorithms/ 14개 분석 알고리즘 (어구추론, 다크베셀, 스푸핑, 환적, 위험도 등)
- pipeline/ 7단계 분류 파이프라인
- cache/vessel_store (24h 슬라이딩 윈도우)
- db/ 어댑터 (snpdb 원본조회, kcgdb 결과저장)
- chat/ AI 채팅 (Ollama, 후순위)
- data/ 정적 데이터 (기선, 특정어업수역 GeoJSON)

config.py를 kcgaidb로 재구성 (DB명, 사용자, 비밀번호)
DB 연결 검증 완료 (kcgaidb 37개 테이블 접근 확인)
Makefile에 dev-prediction / dev-all 타겟 추가
CLAUDE.md에 prediction 섹션 추가

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-07 12:56:51 +09:00

127 lines
3.2 KiB
Python

from typing import Optional, Tuple
import pandas as pd
from algorithms.location import classify_zone
from algorithms.fishing_pattern import detect_fishing_segments, detect_trawl_uturn
from algorithms.dark_vessel import detect_ais_gaps
from algorithms.spoofing import detect_teleportation
def compute_lightweight_risk_score(
zone_info: dict,
sog: float,
is_permitted: Optional[bool] = None,
) -> Tuple[int, str]:
"""위치·허가 이력 기반 경량 위험도 (파이프라인 미통과 선박용).
compute_vessel_risk_score의 1번(위치)+4번(허가) 로직과 동일.
Returns: (risk_score, risk_level)
"""
score = 0
# 1. 위치 기반 (최대 40점)
zone = zone_info.get('zone', '')
if zone == 'TERRITORIAL_SEA':
score += 40
elif zone == 'CONTIGUOUS_ZONE':
score += 10
elif zone.startswith('ZONE_'):
if is_permitted is not None and not is_permitted:
score += 25
# 4. 허가 이력 (최대 20점)
if is_permitted is not None and not is_permitted:
score += 20
score = min(score, 100)
if score >= 70:
level = 'CRITICAL'
elif score >= 50:
level = 'HIGH'
elif score >= 30:
level = 'MEDIUM'
else:
level = 'LOW'
return score, level
def compute_vessel_risk_score(
mmsi: str,
df_vessel: pd.DataFrame,
zone_info: Optional[dict] = None,
is_permitted: Optional[bool] = None,
) -> Tuple[int, str]:
"""선박별 종합 위반 위험도 (0~100점).
Returns: (risk_score, risk_level)
"""
if len(df_vessel) == 0:
return 0, 'LOW'
score = 0
# 1. 위치 기반 (최대 40점)
if zone_info is None:
last = df_vessel.iloc[-1]
zone_info = classify_zone(last['lat'], last['lon'])
zone = zone_info.get('zone', '')
if zone == 'TERRITORIAL_SEA':
score += 40
elif zone == 'CONTIGUOUS_ZONE':
score += 10
elif zone.startswith('ZONE_'):
# 특정어업수역 내 — 무허가면 가산
if is_permitted is not None and not is_permitted:
score += 25
# 2. 조업 행위 (최대 30점)
segs = detect_fishing_segments(df_vessel)
ts_fishing = [s for s in segs if s.get('in_territorial_sea')]
if ts_fishing:
score += 20
elif segs:
score += 5
uturn = detect_trawl_uturn(df_vessel)
if uturn.get('trawl_suspected'):
score += 10
# 3. AIS 조작 (최대 35점)
teleports = detect_teleportation(df_vessel)
if teleports:
score += 20
from algorithms.spoofing import count_speed_jumps
jumps = count_speed_jumps(df_vessel)
if jumps >= 3:
score += 10
elif jumps >= 1:
score += 5
gaps = detect_ais_gaps(df_vessel)
critical_gaps = [g for g in gaps if g['gap_min'] >= 60]
if critical_gaps:
score += 15
elif gaps:
score += 5
# 4. 허가 이력 (최대 20점)
if is_permitted is not None and not is_permitted:
score += 20
score = min(score, 100)
if score >= 70:
level = 'CRITICAL'
elif score >= 50:
level = 'HIGH'
elif score >= 30:
level = 'MEDIUM'
else:
level = 'LOW'
return score, level