feat: prediction 알고리즘 재설계 + 프론트 CRUD 권한 가드 보완

- prediction: dark_vessel 의심 점수화(8패턴 0~100), transshipment 베테랑 재설계
- prediction: vessel_store/scheduler/config 개선, monitoring_zones 데이터 추가
- prediction: signal_api 신규, diagnostic-snapshot 스크립트 추가
- frontend: 지도 레이어 구조 정리 (BaseMap, useMapLayers, static layers)
- frontend: NoticeManagement CRUD 권한 가드 추가 (admin:notices C/U/D)
- frontend: EventList CRUD 권한 가드 추가 (enforcement:event-list U, enforcement:enforcement-history C)
- frontend: 지도 페이지 6개 + Dashboard 등 4개 페이지 소폭 개선

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/features/admin/NoticeManagement.tsx

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import { Card, CardContent, CardHeader, CardTitle } from '@shared/components/ui/
 import { Badge } from '@shared/components/ui/badge';
 import { Button } from '@shared/components/ui/button';
 import { PageContainer, PageHeader } from '@shared/components/layout';
+import { useAuth } from '@/app/auth/AuthContext';
 import type { BadgeIntent } from '@lib/theme/variants';
 import {
   Bell, Plus, Edit2, Trash2, Eye, EyeOff, Calendar,
@@ -74,6 +75,10 @@ const ROLE_OPTIONS = ['ADMIN', 'OPERATOR', 'ANALYST', 'FIELD', 'VIEWER'];
 
 export function NoticeManagement() {
   const { t } = useTranslation('admin');
+  const { hasPermission } = useAuth();
+  const canCreate = hasPermission('admin:notices', 'CREATE');
+  const canUpdate = hasPermission('admin:notices', 'UPDATE');
+  const canDelete = hasPermission('admin:notices', 'DELETE');
   const [notices, setNotices] = useState<SystemNotice[]>(INITIAL_NOTICES);
   const [editingId, setEditingId] = useState<string | null>(null);
   const [showForm, setShowForm] = useState(false);
@@ -146,7 +151,7 @@ export function NoticeManagement() {
         description={t('notices.desc')}
         demo
         actions={
-          <Button variant="primary" size="md" onClick={openNew} icon={<Plus className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />}>
+          <Button variant="primary" size="md" onClick={openNew} disabled={!canCreate} title={!canCreate ? '등록 권한이 필요합니다' : undefined} icon={<Plus className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />}>
             새 알림 등록
           </Button>
         }
@@ -237,10 +242,10 @@ export function NoticeManagement() {
                     </td>
                     <td className="px-1 py-1.5">
                       <div className="flex items-center justify-center gap-0.5">
-                        <button type="button" onClick={() => openEdit(n)} className="p-1 text-hint hover:text-blue-400" title="수정">
+                        <button type="button" onClick={() => openEdit(n)} disabled={!canUpdate} className="p-1 text-hint hover:text-blue-400 disabled:opacity-30 disabled:cursor-not-allowed" title={canUpdate ? '수정' : '수정 권한이 필요합니다'}>
                           <Edit2 className="w-3 h-3" />
                         </button>
-                        <button type="button" onClick={() => handleDelete(n.id)} className="p-1 text-hint hover:text-red-400" title="삭제">
+                        <button type="button" onClick={() => handleDelete(n.id)} disabled={!canDelete} className="p-1 text-hint hover:text-red-400 disabled:opacity-30 disabled:cursor-not-allowed" title={canDelete ? '삭제' : '삭제 권한이 필요합니다'}>
                           <Trash2 className="w-3 h-3" />
                         </button>
                       </div>
@@ -414,7 +419,7 @@ export function NoticeManagement() {
               <SaveButton
                 onClick={handleSave}
                 label={editingId ? '수정' : '등록'}
-                disabled={!form.title.trim() || !form.message.trim()}
+                disabled={!form.title.trim() || !form.message.trim() || (editingId ? !canUpdate : !canCreate)}
               />
             </div>
           </div>

frontend/src/features/dashboard/Dashboard.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { useState, useEffect, useMemo, useRef, useCallback, memo } from 'react';
 import { useTranslation } from 'react-i18next';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createHeatmapLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createHeatmapLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import type { HeatPoint, MarkerData } from '@lib/map';
 import {
   AlertTriangle, Ship, Anchor, Eye, Navigation,
@@ -187,7 +187,7 @@ function SeaAreaMap() {
   const mapRef = useRef<MapHandle>(null);
 
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => [
-    ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+    ...createStaticLayers(),
     createHeatmapLayer('threat-heat', THREAT_HEAT as HeatPoint[], { radiusPixels: 22 }),
     createMarkerLayer('threat-markers', THREAT_MARKERS),
   ], []);

frontend/src/features/detection/DarkVesselDetection.tsx

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import { Select } from '@shared/components/ui/select';
 import { PageContainer, PageHeader } from '@shared/components/layout';
 import { DataTable, type DataColumn } from '@shared/components/common/DataTable';
 import { EyeOff, AlertTriangle, Loader2, Filter } from 'lucide-react';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import type { MarkerData } from '@lib/map';
 import { getDarkVessels, type VesselAnalysis } from '@/services/analysisApi';
 import { formatDateTime } from '@shared/utils/dateFormat';
@@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ export function DarkVesselDetection() {
   const mapRef = useRef<MapHandle>(null);
 
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => [
-    ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+    ...createStaticLayers(),
     createRadiusLayer(
       'dv-radius',
       DATA.filter((d) => d.darkScore >= 70).map((d) => ({

frontend/src/features/detection/GearDetection.tsx

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ import { Badge } from '@shared/components/ui/badge';
 import { PageContainer, PageHeader } from '@shared/components/layout';
 import { DataTable, type DataColumn } from '@shared/components/common/DataTable';
 import { Anchor, AlertTriangle, Loader2 } from 'lucide-react';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import type { MarkerData } from '@lib/map';
 import { fetchGroups, type GearGroupItem } from '@/services/vesselAnalysisApi';
 import { formatDate } from '@shared/utils/dateFormat';
@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@ export function GearDetection() {
   const mapRef = useRef<MapHandle>(null);
 
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => [
-    ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+    ...createStaticLayers(),
     createRadiusLayer(
       'gear-radius',
       DATA.filter(g => g.risk === '고위험').map(g => ({

frontend/src/features/enforcement/EventList.tsx

@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ import { type AlertLevel as AlertLevelType, getAlertLevelLabel, getAlertLevelInt
 import { getEventStatusIntent, getEventStatusLabel } from '@shared/constants/eventStatuses';
 import { getViolationLabel, getViolationIntent } from '@shared/constants/violationTypes';
 import { useSettingsStore } from '@stores/settingsStore';
+import { useAuth } from '@/app/auth/AuthContext';
 
 /*
  * 이벤트 목록 — SFR-02 공통컴포넌트 적용
@@ -51,6 +52,9 @@ export function EventList() {
   const { t: tc } = useTranslation('common');
   const lang = useSettingsStore((s) => s.language);
   const navigate = useNavigate();
+  const { hasPermission } = useAuth();
+  const canAck = hasPermission('enforcement:event-list', 'UPDATE');
+  const canCreateEnforcement = hasPermission('enforcement:enforcement-history', 'CREATE');
   const {
     events: storeEvents,
     rawEvents,
@@ -167,9 +171,9 @@ export function EventList() {
         return (
           <div className="flex items-center gap-1">
             {isNew && (
-              <button type="button" aria-label="확인" title="확인(ACK)"
-                className="p-0.5 rounded hover:bg-blue-500/20 text-blue-400 disabled:opacity-30"
-                disabled={busy} onClick={(e) => { e.stopPropagation(); handleAck(eid); }}>
+              <button type="button" aria-label="확인" title={canAck ? '확인(ACK)' : '확인 권한이 필요합니다'}
+                className="p-0.5 rounded hover:bg-blue-500/20 text-blue-400 disabled:opacity-30 disabled:cursor-not-allowed"
+                disabled={busy || !canAck} onClick={(e) => { e.stopPropagation(); handleAck(eid); }}>
                 <CheckCircle className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
               </button>
             )}
@@ -180,14 +184,14 @@ export function EventList() {
             </button>
             {isActionable && (
               <>
-                <button type="button" aria-label="단속 등록" title="단속 등록"
-                  className="p-0.5 rounded hover:bg-green-500/20 text-green-400 disabled:opacity-30"
-                  disabled={busy} onClick={(e) => { e.stopPropagation(); handleCreateEnforcement(row); }}>
+                <button type="button" aria-label="단속 등록" title={canCreateEnforcement ? '단속 등록' : '단속 등록 권한이 필요합니다'}
+                  className="p-0.5 rounded hover:bg-green-500/20 text-green-400 disabled:opacity-30 disabled:cursor-not-allowed"
+                  disabled={busy || !canCreateEnforcement} onClick={(e) => { e.stopPropagation(); handleCreateEnforcement(row); }}>
                   <Shield className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
                 </button>
-                <button type="button" aria-label="오탐 처리" title="오탐 처리"
-                  className="p-0.5 rounded hover:bg-red-500/20 text-red-400 disabled:opacity-30"
-                  disabled={busy} onClick={(e) => { e.stopPropagation(); handleFalsePositive(eid); }}>
+                <button type="button" aria-label="오탐 처리" title={canAck ? '오탐 처리' : '상태 변경 권한이 필요합니다'}
+                  className="p-0.5 rounded hover:bg-red-500/20 text-red-400 disabled:opacity-30 disabled:cursor-not-allowed"
+                  disabled={busy || !canAck} onClick={(e) => { e.stopPropagation(); handleFalsePositive(eid); }}>
                   <Ban className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
                 </button>
               </>
@@ -196,7 +200,7 @@ export function EventList() {
         );
       },
     },
-  ], [tc, lang, actionLoading, handleAck, handleFalsePositive, handleCreateEnforcement, navigate]);
+  ], [tc, lang, actionLoading, handleAck, handleFalsePositive, handleCreateEnforcement, navigate, canAck, canCreateEnforcement]);
 
   const [levelFilter, setLevelFilter] = useState<string>('');
   const [showUpload, setShowUpload] = useState(false);

frontend/src/features/patrol/FleetOptimization.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { useState, useEffect, useMemo, useRef, useCallback } from 'react';
 import { useTranslation } from 'react-i18next';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createPolylineLayer, createZoneLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createPolylineLayer, createZoneLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import { Card, CardContent } from '@shared/components/ui/card';
 import { Badge } from '@shared/components/ui/badge';
 import { Button } from '@shared/components/ui/button';
@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ export function FleetOptimization() {
     }));
 
     return [
-      ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+      ...createStaticLayers(),
       createZoneLayer('coverage', coverageZones, 30000, 0.12),
       createMarkerLayer('coverage-labels', coverageLabels),
       ...routeLayers,

frontend/src/features/patrol/PatrolRoute.tsx

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { useState, useEffect, useMemo, useCallback, useRef } from 'react';
 import { useTranslation } from 'react-i18next';
 import type maplibregl from 'maplibre-gl';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createPolylineLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createPolylineLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import { Card, CardContent } from '@shared/components/ui/card';
 import { Badge } from '@shared/components/ui/badge';
 import { Button } from '@shared/components/ui/button';
@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ export function PatrolRoute() {
   const wps = route?.waypoints ?? [];
 
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => {
-    if (wps.length === 0) return [...STATIC_LAYERS];
+    if (wps.length === 0) return [...createStaticLayers()];
 
     const routeCoords: [number, number][] = wps.map(w => [w.lat, w.lng]);
     const midMarkers = [];
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ export function PatrolRoute() {
     });
 
     return [
-      ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+      ...createStaticLayers(),
       createPolylineLayer('patrol-route', routeCoords, { color: '#06b6d4', width: 3, opacity: 0.8 }),
       createMarkerLayer('route-midpoints', midMarkers, '#06b6d4', 500),
       createMarkerLayer('waypoint-markers', waypointMarkers),

frontend/src/features/risk-assessment/EnforcementPlan.tsx

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import { DataTable, type DataColumn } from '@shared/components/common/DataTable'
 import { getRiskIntent, getStatusIntent } from '@shared/constants/statusIntent';
 import { getAlertLevelIntent, getAlertLevelLabel } from '@shared/constants/alertLevels';
 import { Shield, AlertTriangle, Ship, Plus, Calendar, Users, Loader2 } from 'lucide-react';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import type { MarkerData } from '@lib/map';
 import { getEnforcementPlans, type EnforcementPlan as EnforcementPlanApi } from '@/services/enforcement';
 import { getEvents, type PredictionEvent } from '@/services/event';
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ export function EnforcementPlan() {
   const mapRef = useRef<MapHandle>(null);
 
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => [
-    ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+    ...createStaticLayers(),
     createRadiusLayer(
       'ep-radius-confirmed',
       PLANS.filter(p => p.status === '확정' || p.status === 'CONFIRMED').map(p => ({

frontend/src/features/risk-assessment/RiskMap.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { useState, useRef, useCallback } from 'react';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createHeatmapLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createHeatmapLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import type { HeatPoint } from '@lib/map';
 import { Card, CardContent } from '@shared/components/ui/card';
 import { Button } from '@shared/components/ui/button';
@@ -169,7 +169,7 @@ export function RiskMap() {
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => {
     if (tab !== 'heatmap') return [];
     return [
-      ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+      ...createStaticLayers(),
       createHeatmapLayer('risk-heat', HEAT_POINTS as HeatPoint[], { radiusPixels: 25 }),
     ];
   }, [tab]);

frontend/src/features/surveillance/LiveMapView.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { useState, useEffect, useRef, useCallback, useMemo } from 'react';
 import maplibregl from 'maplibre-gl';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import type { MarkerData } from '@lib/map';
 import { Card, CardContent } from '@shared/components/ui/card';
 import { Badge } from '@shared/components/ui/badge';
@@ -160,7 +160,7 @@ export function LiveMapView() {
 
   // deck.gl 레이어
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => [
-    ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+    ...createStaticLayers(),
     // 선박 분석 데이터 마커 (riskLevel 기반 색상)
     createMarkerLayer(
       'ais-vessels',

frontend/src/features/surveillance/MapControl.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { useState, useRef, useCallback } from 'react';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import { Card, CardContent } from '@shared/components/ui/card';
 import { Badge } from '@shared/components/ui/badge';
 import { PageContainer, PageHeader } from '@shared/components/layout';
@@ -229,7 +229,7 @@ export function MapControl() {
     }));
 
     return [
-      ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+      ...createStaticLayers(),
       createRadiusLayer(
         'zone-circles-active',
         activeZones.map(pz => ({ lat: pz.lat, lng: pz.lng, radius: pz.radiusM, color: pz.color })),

frontend/src/features/vessel/VesselDetail.tsx

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import {
   Camera, Crosshair, Ruler, CircleDot, Clock, LayoutGrid, Brain,
   Loader2, ShieldAlert, Shield, EyeOff, FileText,
 } from 'lucide-react';
-import { BaseMap, STATIC_LAYERS, createZoneLayer, createPolylineLayer, JURISDICTION_AREAS, DEPTH_CONTOURS, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
+import { BaseMap, createStaticLayers, createZoneLayer, createPolylineLayer, JURISDICTION_AREAS, DEPTH_CONTOURS, useMapLayers, type MapHandle } from '@lib/map';
 import { formatDateTime } from '@shared/utils/dateFormat';
 import { getEvents, type PredictionEvent } from '@/services/event';
 import { getAnalysisLatest, getAnalysisHistory, type VesselAnalysis } from '@/services/analysisApi';
@@ -160,7 +160,7 @@ export function VesselDetail() {
 
   // 지도 레이어
   const buildLayers = useCallback(() => [
-    ...STATIC_LAYERS,
+    ...createStaticLayers(),
     createZoneLayer('jurisdiction', JURISDICTION_AREAS.map((a) => ({
       name: a.name, lat: a.lat, lng: a.lng, color: a.color, radiusM: 80000,
     })), 80000, 0.05),

frontend/src/lib/map/BaseMap.tsx

@@ -98,6 +98,12 @@ export const BaseMap = memo(forwardRef<MapHandle, BaseMapProps>(function BaseMap
     map.on('load', () => { onMapReady?.(map); });
 
     return () => {
+      // deck.gl overlay를 먼저 정리하여 WebGL 리소스 해제
+      if (overlayRef.current) {
+        try {
+          overlayRef.current.finalize();
+        } catch { /* 이미 해제된 경우 무시 */ }
+      }
       map.remove();
       mapRef.current = null;
       overlayRef.current = null;

frontend/src/lib/map/hooks/useMapLayers.ts

@@ -35,7 +35,11 @@ export function useMapLayers(
       handleRef.current?.overlay?.setProps({ layers: buildLayers() });
     });
 
-    return () => cancelAnimationFrame(rafRef.current);
+    return () => {
+      cancelAnimationFrame(rafRef.current);
+      // 언마운트 시 레이어 초기화 — stale WebGL 참조 방지
+      try { handleRef.current?.overlay?.setProps({ layers: [] }); } catch { /* finalized */ }
+    };
   });
 }
 
@@ -60,6 +64,8 @@ export function useStoreLayerSync<T>(
     return () => {
       unsub();
       cancelAnimationFrame(rafRef.current);
+      // 언마운트 시 레이어 초기화 — stale WebGL 참조 방지
+      try { handleRef.current?.overlay?.setProps({ layers: [] }); } catch { /* finalized */ }
     };
   // buildLayers는 안정적 참조여야 함 (useCallback으로 감싸거나 모듈 스코프)
   // eslint-disable-next-line react-hooks/exhaustive-deps

frontend/src/lib/map/index.ts

@@ -14,6 +14,6 @@ export {
   createPolylineLayer,
   createHeatmapLayer,
   createZoneLayer,
-  EEZ_LAYER, NLL_LAYER, STATIC_LAYERS,
+  createStaticLayers,
 } from './layers';
 export { useMapLayers, useStoreLayerSync } from './hooks/useMapLayers';

frontend/src/lib/map/layers/index.ts

@@ -3,4 +3,4 @@ export { createMarkerLayer, createRadiusLayer, type MarkerData } from './markers
 export { createPolylineLayer } from './polyline';
 export { createHeatmapLayer } from './heatmap';
 export { createZoneLayer } from './zones';
-export { EEZ_LAYER, NLL_LAYER, STATIC_LAYERS } from './static';
+export { createEEZStaticLayer, createNLLStaticLayer, createStaticLayers } from './static';

frontend/src/lib/map/layers/static.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,10 @@
 /**
- * 정적 레이어 싱글턴
- * 모듈 로드 시 1회만 생성 → 모든 페이지에서 같은 인스턴스 재사용
- * deck.gl은 같은 id + 같은 data 참조면 GPU 재전송하지 않음
+ * 정적 레이어 팩토리
+ *
+ * 주의: deck.gl Layer 인스턴스는 내부에 WebGL 프로그램/모델 캐시를 보유한다.
+ * 싱글턴으로 공유하면 페이지 전환 시 이전 WebGL 컨텍스트의 stale 참조가
+ * 새 컨텍스트에서 재사용되어 "parameter 1 is not of type 'WebGLProgram'" 에러 발생.
+ * → 매 호출마다 새 인스턴스 생성. deck.gl이 id 기반 diff로 GPU 전송을 최적화.
  */
 import { PathLayer } from 'deck.gl';
 import { EEZ_BOUNDARY, NLL_LINE, EEZ_STYLE, NLL_STYLE } from '../constants';
@@ -20,29 +23,38 @@ function hexToRgba(hex: string, opacity: number): [number, number, number, numbe
 const EEZ_DATA = [{ path: toPath(EEZ_BOUNDARY) }];
 const NLL_DATA = [{ path: toPath(NLL_LINE) }];
 
-/** EEZ 경계선 — 싱글턴, 리렌더/재생성 없음 */
-export const EEZ_LAYER = new PathLayer({
-  id: 'eez-boundary',
-  data: EEZ_DATA,
-  getPath: (d: { path: [number, number][] }) => d.path,
-  getColor: hexToRgba(EEZ_STYLE.color, EEZ_STYLE.opacity),
-  getWidth: EEZ_STYLE.weight * 2,
-  widthUnits: 'pixels' as const,
-  getDashArray: [6, 4],
-  dashJustified: true,
-});
+const EEZ_COLOR = hexToRgba(EEZ_STYLE.color, EEZ_STYLE.opacity);
+const NLL_COLOR = hexToRgba(NLL_STYLE.color, NLL_STYLE.opacity);
 
-/** NLL 경계선 — 싱글턴, 리렌더/재생성 없음 */
-export const NLL_LAYER = new PathLayer({
-  id: 'nll-line',
-  data: NLL_DATA,
-  getPath: (d: { path: [number, number][] }) => d.path,
-  getColor: hexToRgba(NLL_STYLE.color, NLL_STYLE.opacity),
-  getWidth: NLL_STYLE.weight * 2,
-  widthUnits: 'pixels' as const,
-  getDashArray: [8, 4],
-  dashJustified: true,
-});
+/** EEZ 경계선 레이어 생성 */
+export function createEEZStaticLayer() {
+  return new PathLayer({
+    id: 'eez-boundary',
+    data: EEZ_DATA,
+    getPath: (d: { path: [number, number][] }) => d.path,
+    getColor: EEZ_COLOR,
+    getWidth: EEZ_STYLE.weight * 2,
+    widthUnits: 'pixels' as const,
+    getDashArray: [6, 4],
+    dashJustified: true,
+  });
+}
 
-/** 정적 기본 레이어 배열 (EEZ + NLL) */
-export const STATIC_LAYERS = [EEZ_LAYER, NLL_LAYER] as const;
+/** NLL 경계선 레이어 생성 */
+export function createNLLStaticLayer() {
+  return new PathLayer({
+    id: 'nll-line',
+    data: NLL_DATA,
+    getPath: (d: { path: [number, number][] }) => d.path,
+    getColor: NLL_COLOR,
+    getWidth: NLL_STYLE.weight * 2,
+    widthUnits: 'pixels' as const,
+    getDashArray: [8, 4],
+    dashJustified: true,
+  });
+}
+
+/** 정적 기본 레이어 배열 (EEZ + NLL) — 매 호출마다 새 인스턴스 */
+export function createStaticLayers() {
+  return [createEEZStaticLayer(), createNLLStaticLayer()];
+}

prediction/algorithms/dark_vessel.py

@@ -3,8 +3,8 @@ from typing import Callable, Optional
 import pandas as pd
 from algorithms.location import haversine_nm
 
-GAP_SUSPICIOUS_SEC = 1800       # 30분
-GAP_HIGH_SUSPICIOUS_SEC = 3600  # 1시간
+GAP_SUSPICIOUS_SEC = 6000       # 100분 (30분 → 100분 상향: 자연 gap 과탐 감소)
+GAP_HIGH_SUSPICIOUS_SEC = 10800 # 3시간
 GAP_VIOLATION_SEC = 86400       # 24시간
 
 # 한국 AIS 수신 가능 추정 영역 (한반도 + EEZ + 접속수역 여유)
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ def is_dark_vessel(df_vessel: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[bool, int]:
         return False, 0
 
     max_gap_min = max(g['gap_min'] for g in gaps)
-    is_dark = max_gap_min >= 30  # 30분 이상 소실
+    is_dark = max_gap_min >= (GAP_SUSPICIOUS_SEC / 60)  # 상수에서 파생
     return is_dark, int(max_gap_min)
 
 
@@ -218,6 +218,10 @@ def compute_dark_suspicion(
     history: dict,
     now_kst_hour: int,
     classify_zone_fn: Optional[Callable[[float, float], dict]] = None,
+    ship_kind_code: str = '',
+    nav_status: str = '',
+    heading: Optional[float] = None,
+    last_cog: Optional[float] = None,
 ) -> tuple[int, list[str], str]:
     """의도적 AIS OFF 의심 점수 산출.
 
@@ -228,6 +232,10 @@ def compute_dark_suspicion(
         history: {'count_7d': int, 'count_24h': int}
         now_kst_hour: 현재 KST 시각 (0~23)
         classify_zone_fn: (lat, lon) -> dict. gap_start 위치의 zone 판단
+        ship_kind_code: 선종 코드 (000020=어선, 000023=화물 등)
+        nav_status: 항해 상태 텍스트 ("Under way using engine" 등)
+        heading: 선수 방향 (0~360, signal-batch API)
+        last_cog: gap 직전 침로 (0~360)
 
     Returns:
         (score, patterns, tier)
@@ -314,9 +322,40 @@ def compute_dark_suspicion(
         score += 10
         patterns.append('long_gap')
 
-    # 감점: gap 시작 위치가 한국 수신 커버리지 밖 → 자연 gap 가능성
+    # P9: 선종별 가중치 (signal-batch API 데이터)
+    if ship_kind_code == '000020':
+        # 어선이면서 dark → 불법조업 의도 가능성
+        score += 10
+        patterns.append('fishing_vessel_dark')
+    elif ship_kind_code == '000023':
+        # 화물선은 원양 항해 중 자연 gap 빈번
+        score -= 10
+        patterns.append('cargo_natural_gap')
+
+    # P10: 항해 상태 기반 의도성
+    if nav_status:
+        status_lower = nav_status.lower()
+        if 'under way' in status_lower and gap_start_sog > 3.0:
+            # 항행 중 갑자기 OFF → 의도적
+            score += 20
+            patterns.append('underway_deliberate_off')
+        elif 'anchor' in status_lower or 'moored' in status_lower:
+            # 정박 중 gap → 자연스러움
+            score -= 15
+            patterns.append('anchored_natural_gap')
+
+    # P11: heading vs COG 불일치 (의도적 방향 전환)
+    if heading is not None and last_cog is not None:
+        diff = abs(heading - last_cog) % 360
+        if diff > 180:
+            diff = 360 - diff
+        if diff > 60:
+            score += 15
+            patterns.append('heading_cog_mismatch')
+
+    # 감점: gap 시작 위치가 한국 수신 커버리지 밖 → 자연 gap 가능성 높음
     if not _is_in_kr_coverage(gap_start_lat, gap_start_lon):
-        score -= 30
+        score -= 50
         patterns.append('out_of_coverage')
 
     score = max(0, min(100, score))

prediction/algorithms/transshipment.py

@@ -1,19 +1,21 @@
-"""환적(Transshipment) 의심 선박 탐지 — 서버사이드 O(n log n) 구현.
+"""환적(Transshipment) 의심 선박 탐지 — 5단계 필터 파이프라인.
 
-프론트엔드 useKoreaFilters.ts의 O(n²) 근접 탐지를 대체한다.
-scipy 미설치 환경을 고려하여 그리드 기반 공간 인덱스를 사용한다.
+실무 목표: 일일 10건 미만 고신뢰 의심 건.
 
-알고리즘 개요:
-1. 후보 선박 필터: sog < 2kn, 선종 (tanker/cargo/fishing), 외국 해안선 제외
-2. 그리드 셀 기반 근접 쌍 탐지: O(n log n) ← 셀 분할 + 인접 9셀 조회
-3. pair_history dict로 쌍별 최초 탐지 시각 영속화 (호출 간 유지)
-4. 60분 이상 지속 근접 시 의심 쌍으로 판정
+5단계 필터:
+  Stage 1: 이종 쌍 필수 (어선 ↔ 운반선) — shipKindCode 기반
+  Stage 2: 감시영역(Monitoring Zone) 내 선박만 대상
+  Stage 3: 3단계 패턴 검증 (APPROACH → RENDEZVOUS → DEPARTURE)
+  Stage 4: 점수 산출 (0~100, 50점 미만 미출력)
+  Stage 5: 밀집 방폭 (1 운반선 : 최대 1 어선)
 """
 
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import json
 import logging
 import math
+import os
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from typing import Callable, Optional
 
@@ -24,82 +26,150 @@ from fleet_tracker import GEAR_PATTERN
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-# 상수 (2026-04-09 재조정 — 베테랑 관점)
+# 상수
 # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-SOG_THRESHOLD_KN = 1.0          # 2.0 → 1.0 (완전 정박 수준)
-PROXIMITY_DEG = 0.0007          # 0.001 → 0.0007 (~77m, GPS 노이즈 포함한 근접)
-SUSPECT_DURATION_MIN = 45       # 60 → 45 (gap tolerance 있음)
-PAIR_EXPIRY_MIN = 180           # 120 → 180
-GAP_TOLERANCE_CYCLES = 2        # 신규: 2 사이클까지 active에서 빠져도 리셋 안 함
+SOG_THRESHOLD_KN = 2.0          # 저속 기준 (접현 가능 속도)
+PROXIMITY_DEG = 0.002           # ~220m (0.0007 → 0.002 상향: 접현 가능 범위)
+APPROACH_DEG = 0.01             # ~1.1km (접근 판정 거리)
+RENDEZVOUS_MIN = 90             # 체류 최소 시간 (45 → 90분)
+PAIR_EXPIRY_MIN = 240           # 쌍 만료 시간
+GAP_TOLERANCE_CYCLES = 3        # 3 사이클(15분)까지 miss 허용
 
-# 외국 해안 근접 제외 경계 (레거시 — 관할 필터로 대체됨)
-_CN_LON_MAX = 123.5
-_JP_LON_MIN = 130.5
-_TSUSHIMA_LAT_MIN = 33.8
-_TSUSHIMA_LON_MIN = 129.0
-
-# 한국 EEZ 관할 수역 (단속 가능 범위)
-_KR_EEZ_LAT = (32.0, 39.5)
-_KR_EEZ_LON = (124.0, 132.0)
-
-# 환적 불가능 선종 (여객/군함/유조/도선/예인/수색구조)
-_TRANSSHIP_EXCLUDED: frozenset[str] = frozenset({
-    'passenger', 'military', 'tanker', 'pilot', 'tug', 'sar',
+# 선종 분류 (shipKindCode 기반)
+_FISHING_KINDS = frozenset({'000020'})
+# 운반선: 화물선(000023) + 유조선(000024)만. 000027(기타)은 shipTy로 2차 판정
+_CARRIER_KINDS = frozenset({'000023', '000024'})
+# 환적 불가 선종 (shipTy 텍스트 기반 2차 필터)
+_EXCLUDED_SHIP_TY = frozenset({
+    'Tug', 'Pilot Boat', 'Search And Rescue', 'Law Enforcement',
+    'AtoN', 'Anti Pollution', 'Passenger', 'Medical Transport',
 })
 
-# 그리드 셀 크기
-_GRID_CELL_DEG = PROXIMITY_DEG
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# 감시영역 로드
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+_ZONES_FILE = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), '..', 'data', 'monitoring_zones.json')
+_TRANSSHIP_ZONES: list[dict] = []
+
+
+def _load_monitoring_zones() -> None:
+    global _TRANSSHIP_ZONES
+    try:
+        with open(_ZONES_FILE, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+            data = json.load(f)
+        _TRANSSHIP_ZONES = [
+            z for z in data.get('zones', [])
+            if z.get('type') == 'TRANSSHIP' and z.get('enabled')
+        ]
+        logger.info('loaded %d transship monitoring zones', len(_TRANSSHIP_ZONES))
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.warning('failed to load monitoring zones: %s', e)
+        _TRANSSHIP_ZONES = []
+
+
+_load_monitoring_zones()
+
+
+def _point_in_polygon(lat: float, lon: float, polygon: list[list[float]]) -> bool:
+    """Ray-casting point-in-polygon. polygon: [[lon, lat], ...]"""
+    n = len(polygon)
+    inside = False
+    j = n - 1
+    for i in range(n):
+        xi, yi = polygon[i][0], polygon[i][1]  # lon, lat
+        xj, yj = polygon[j][0], polygon[j][1]
+        if ((yi > lat) != (yj > lat)) and (lon < (xj - xi) * (lat - yi) / (yj - yi) + xi):
+            inside = not inside
+        j = i
+    return inside
+
+
+def _is_in_transship_zone(lat: float, lon: float) -> Optional[str]:
+    """감시영역 내 여부. 해당 zone ID 반환, 미해당 시 None."""
+    for zone in _TRANSSHIP_ZONES:
+        if _point_in_polygon(lat, lon, zone['polygon']):
+            return zone['id']
+    return None
+
+
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# Stage 1: 이종 쌍 필터
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def _classify_vessel_role(
+    ship_kind_code: str,
+    ship_ty: str,
+) -> str:
+    """선박 역할 분류: 'FISHING', 'CARRIER', 'EXCLUDED', 'UNKNOWN'"""
+    if ship_kind_code in _FISHING_KINDS:
+        return 'FISHING'
+    if ship_kind_code in _CARRIER_KINDS:
+        # 화물선/유조선 — shipTy가 예인선/관공선이면 제외
+        if ship_ty in _EXCLUDED_SHIP_TY:
+            return 'EXCLUDED'
+        return 'CARRIER'
+    # 000027(기타) / 000028(미분류): shipTy 텍스트로 엄격 판정
+    if ship_kind_code in ('000027', '000028'):
+        if ship_ty == 'Cargo':
+            return 'CARRIER'
+        if ship_ty == 'Tanker':
+            return 'CARRIER'
+        if ship_ty in _EXCLUDED_SHIP_TY:
+            return 'EXCLUDED'
+        # N/A, Vessel, 기타 → UNKNOWN (환적 후보에서 제외)
+        return 'UNKNOWN'
+    # 000021(함정), 000022(여객), 000025(관공) → 제외
+    if ship_kind_code in ('000021', '000022', '000025'):
+        return 'EXCLUDED'
+    return 'UNKNOWN'
+
+
+def _is_transship_pair(role_a: str, role_b: str) -> bool:
+    """어선 + 운반선 조합만 True."""
+    return (role_a == 'FISHING' and role_b == 'CARRIER') or \
+           (role_b == 'FISHING' and role_a == 'CARRIER')
 
 
 # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 # 내부 헬퍼
 # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-def _is_near_foreign_coast(lat: float, lon: float) -> bool:
-    """외국 해안 근처 여부 — 중국/일본/대마도 경계 확인."""
-    if lon < _CN_LON_MAX:
-        return True
-    if lon > _JP_LON_MIN:
-        return True
-    if lat > _TSUSHIMA_LAT_MIN and lon > _TSUSHIMA_LON_MIN:
-        return True
-    return False
+def _haversine_nm(lat1: float, lon1: float, lat2: float, lon2: float) -> float:
+    R = 3440.065
+    dlat = math.radians(lat2 - lat1)
+    dlon = math.radians(lon2 - lon1)
+    a = math.sin(dlat/2)**2 + math.cos(math.radians(lat1)) * math.cos(math.radians(lat2)) * math.sin(dlon/2)**2
+    return R * 2 * math.atan2(math.sqrt(a), math.sqrt(1 - a))
 
 
-def _is_in_kr_jurisdiction(lat: float, lon: float) -> bool:
-    """한국 EEZ 관할 수역 여부 (단속 가능 범위)."""
-    return (_KR_EEZ_LAT[0] <= lat <= _KR_EEZ_LAT[1]
-            and _KR_EEZ_LON[0] <= lon <= _KR_EEZ_LON[1])
-
-
-def _is_candidate_ship_type(vessel_type_a: Optional[str], vessel_type_b: Optional[str]) -> bool:
-    """환적 후보 선종인지 (명시적 제외만 차단, 미상은 허용)."""
-    a = (vessel_type_a or '').strip().lower()
-    b = (vessel_type_b or '').strip().lower()
-    if a in _TRANSSHIP_EXCLUDED or b in _TRANSSHIP_EXCLUDED:
+def _within_proximity(a: dict, b: dict) -> bool:
+    """PROXIMITY_DEG 이내인지 (위경도 근사)."""
+    dlat = abs(a['lat'] - b['lat'])
+    if dlat >= PROXIMITY_DEG:
         return False
-    return True
+    cos_lat = math.cos(math.radians((a['lat'] + b['lat']) / 2.0))
+    dlon_scaled = abs(a['lon'] - b['lon']) * cos_lat
+    return dlon_scaled < PROXIMITY_DEG
 
 
-def _is_gear_name(name: Optional[str]) -> bool:
-    """어구 이름 패턴 매칭 — fleet_tracker.GEAR_PATTERN SSOT."""
-    if not name:
+def _within_approach(a: dict, b: dict) -> bool:
+    """APPROACH_DEG 이내인지 (~1km)."""
+    dlat = abs(a['lat'] - b['lat'])
+    if dlat >= APPROACH_DEG:
         return False
-    return bool(GEAR_PATTERN.match(name))
+    cos_lat = math.cos(math.radians((a['lat'] + b['lat']) / 2.0))
+    dlon_scaled = abs(a['lon'] - b['lon']) * cos_lat
+    return dlon_scaled < APPROACH_DEG
 
 
 def _cell_key(lat: float, lon: float) -> tuple[int, int]:
-    """위도/경도를 그리드 셀 인덱스로 변환."""
-    return (int(math.floor(lat / _GRID_CELL_DEG)),
-            int(math.floor(lon / _GRID_CELL_DEG)))
+    return (int(math.floor(lat / APPROACH_DEG)),
+            int(math.floor(lon / APPROACH_DEG)))
 
 
 def _build_grid(records: list[dict]) -> dict[tuple[int, int], list[int]]:
-    """선박 리스트를 그리드 셀로 분류.
-
-    Returns: {(row, col): [record index, ...]}
-    """
     grid: dict[tuple[int, int], list[int]] = {}
     for idx, rec in enumerate(records):
         key = _cell_key(rec['lat'], rec['lon'])
@@ -109,147 +179,130 @@ def _build_grid(records: list[dict]) -> dict[tuple[int, int], list[int]]:
     return grid
 
 
-def _within_proximity(a: dict, b: dict) -> bool:
-    """두 선박이 PROXIMITY_DEG 이내인지 확인 (위경도 직교 근사)."""
-    dlat = abs(a['lat'] - b['lat'])
-    if dlat >= PROXIMITY_DEG:
-        return False
-    cos_lat = math.cos(math.radians((a['lat'] + b['lat']) / 2.0))
-    dlon_scaled = abs(a['lon'] - b['lon']) * cos_lat
-    return dlon_scaled < PROXIMITY_DEG
-
-
-def _normalize_type(raw: Optional[str]) -> str:
-    """선종 문자열 소문자 정규화."""
-    if not raw:
-        return ''
-    return raw.strip().lower()
-
-
 def _pair_key(mmsi_a: str, mmsi_b: str) -> tuple[str, str]:
-    """MMSI 순서를 정규화하여 중복 쌍 방지."""
     return (mmsi_a, mmsi_b) if mmsi_a < mmsi_b else (mmsi_b, mmsi_a)
 
 
-def _evict_expired_pairs(
-    pair_history: dict,
-    now: datetime,
-) -> None:
-    """PAIR_EXPIRY_MIN 이상 갱신 없는 pair_history 항목 제거.
+def _is_gear_name(name: Optional[str]) -> bool:
+    if not name:
+        return False
+    return bool(GEAR_PATTERN.match(name))
 
-    새 구조: {(a,b): {'first_seen': dt, 'last_seen': dt, 'miss_count': int}}
-    """
-    expired = []
-    for key, meta in pair_history.items():
-        if not isinstance(meta, dict):
-            # 레거시 구조 (datetime 직접 저장)는 즉시 제거 → 다음 사이클에서 재구성
-            expired.append(key)
-            continue
-        last_seen = meta.get('last_seen') or meta.get('first_seen')
-        if last_seen is None:
-            expired.append(key)
-            continue
-        if (now - last_seen).total_seconds() / 60 > PAIR_EXPIRY_MIN:
-            expired.append(key)
-    for key in expired:
-        del pair_history[key]
+
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# Stage 4: 점수 산출
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def _score_pair(
+    meta: dict,
+    now: datetime,
+    is_permitted_fn: Optional[Callable[[str], bool]],
+    now_kst_hour: int,
+    zone_id: Optional[str],
+    vessel_info_a: dict,
+    vessel_info_b: dict,
+) -> Optional[dict]:
+    """환적 의심 점수 산출. 50점 미만이면 None."""
+    phase = meta.get('phase', 'APPROACH')
+    pair = meta.get('pair')
+    if not pair:
+        return None
+
+    # 필수: RENDEZVOUS 90분 이상
+    rendezvous_start = meta.get('rendezvous_start')
+    if rendezvous_start is None:
+        return None
+    rendezvous_min = (now - rendezvous_start).total_seconds() / 60
+    if rendezvous_min < RENDEZVOUS_MIN:
+        return None
+
+    score = 0
+
+    # 3단계 패턴 완성도
+    has_approach = meta.get('approach_detected', False)
+    has_departure = meta.get('departure_detected', False)
+    if has_approach and has_departure:
+        score += 35
+    elif has_departure or has_approach:
+        score += 25
+    else:
+        score += 15
+
+    # 어선 식별 — pair에서 누가 어선이고 누가 운반선인지
+    role_a = meta.get('role_a', 'UNKNOWN')
+    role_b = meta.get('role_b', 'UNKNOWN')
+    fishing_mmsi = pair[0] if role_a == 'FISHING' else pair[1]
+    carrier_mmsi = pair[1] if role_a == 'FISHING' else pair[0]
+
+    # 운반선 무허가
+    if is_permitted_fn is not None:
+        try:
+            if not is_permitted_fn(carrier_mmsi):
+                score += 15
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    # 야간 (20:00~04:00 KST)
+    if now_kst_hour >= 20 or now_kst_hour < 4:
+        score += 10
+
+    # 수역 가점 (감시영역 종류에 따라)
+    if zone_id:
+        if 'EEZ' in zone_id.upper() or '001' in zone_id:
+            score += 15
+        else:
+            score += 10
+
+    # 체류 시간 bonus
+    if rendezvous_min >= 180:
+        score += 10
+    elif rendezvous_min >= 120:
+        score += 5
+
+    # heading 병행 판정 (향후 detail API 데이터)
+    heading_a = vessel_info_a.get('heading')
+    heading_b = vessel_info_b.get('heading')
+    if heading_a is not None and heading_b is not None:
+        diff = abs(heading_a - heading_b)
+        if diff > 180:
+            diff = 360 - diff
+        if diff < 20:  # 평행 = 접현 가능
+            score += 10
+
+    score = max(0, min(100, score))
+
+    if score < 50:
+        return None
+
+    if score >= 70:
+        severity = 'CRITICAL'
+    else:
+        severity = 'HIGH'
+
+    lat = meta.get('last_lat', 0)
+    lon = meta.get('last_lon', 0)
+
+    return {
+        'pair_a': pair[0],
+        'pair_b': pair[1],
+        'fishing_mmsi': fishing_mmsi,
+        'carrier_mmsi': carrier_mmsi,
+        'duration_min': int(rendezvous_min),
+        'severity': severity,
+        'score': score,
+        'lat': lat,
+        'lon': lon,
+        'zone_id': zone_id,
+        'phase': phase,
+        'has_approach': has_approach,
+        'has_departure': has_departure,
+    }
 
 
 # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 # 공개 API
 # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-def _score_pair(
-    pair: tuple[str, str],
-    meta: dict,
-    lat: float,
-    lon: float,
-    cog_a: Optional[float],
-    cog_b: Optional[float],
-    vessel_info_a: dict,
-    vessel_info_b: dict,
-    is_permitted_fn: Optional[Callable[[str], bool]],
-    now_kst_hour: int,
-    zone_code: Optional[str],
-    now: datetime,
-) -> Optional[dict]:
-    """환적 의심 pair에 대해 점수 산출 + severity 반환.
-
-    필수 조건 실패 시 None. WATCH 이상이면 dict 반환.
-    """
-    # 필수 1: 한국 관할 수역
-    if not _is_in_kr_jurisdiction(lat, lon):
-        return None
-    # 필수 2: 선종 필터
-    if not _is_candidate_ship_type(
-        vessel_info_a.get('vessel_type'),
-        vessel_info_b.get('vessel_type'),
-    ):
-        return None
-    # 필수 3: 어구 제외
-    if _is_gear_name(vessel_info_a.get('name')) or _is_gear_name(vessel_info_b.get('name')):
-        return None
-    # 필수 4: 지속 시간
-    first_seen = meta.get('first_seen')
-    if first_seen is None:
-        return None
-    duration_min = int((now - first_seen).total_seconds() / 60)
-    if duration_min < SUSPECT_DURATION_MIN:
-        return None
-
-    score = 40  # base
-
-    # 야간 가점 (KST 20:00~04:00)
-    if now_kst_hour >= 20 or now_kst_hour < 4:
-        score += 15
-
-    # 무허가 가점
-    if is_permitted_fn is not None:
-        try:
-            if not is_permitted_fn(pair[0]) or not is_permitted_fn(pair[1]):
-                score += 20
-        except Exception:
-            pass
-
-    # COG 편차 (같은 방향 아니면 가점 — 나란히 가는 선단 배제)
-    if cog_a is not None and cog_b is not None:
-        try:
-            diff = abs(float(cog_a) - float(cog_b))
-            if diff > 180:
-                diff = 360 - diff
-            if diff > 45:
-                score += 20
-        except Exception:
-            pass
-
-    # 지속 길이 추가 가점
-    if duration_min >= 90:
-        score += 20
-
-    # 영해/접속수역 추가 가점
-    if zone_code in ('TERRITORIAL_SEA', 'CONTIGUOUS_ZONE'):
-        score += 15
-
-    if score >= 90:
-        severity = 'CRITICAL'
-    elif score >= 70:
-        severity = 'HIGH'
-    elif score >= 50:
-        severity = 'WATCH'
-    else:
-        return None
-
-    return {
-        'pair_a': pair[0],
-        'pair_b': pair[1],
-        'duration_min': duration_min,
-        'severity': severity,
-        'score': score,
-        'lat': lat,
-        'lon': lon,
-    }
-
-
 def detect_transshipment(
     df: pd.DataFrame,
     pair_history: dict,
@@ -258,207 +311,226 @@ def detect_transshipment(
     classify_zone_fn: Optional[Callable[[float, float], dict]] = None,
     now_kst_hour: int = 0,
 ) -> list[dict]:
-    """환적 의심 쌍 탐지 (점수 기반, 베테랑 관점 필터).
+    """환적 의심 쌍 탐지 — 5단계 필터 파이프라인.
 
     Args:
-        df: 선박 위치 DataFrame.
-            필수 컬럼: mmsi, lat, lon, sog
-            선택 컬럼: cog
-        pair_history: {(a,b): {'first_seen', 'last_seen', 'miss_count'}}
-        get_vessel_info: callable(mmsi) -> {'name', 'vessel_type', ...}
-        is_permitted: callable(mmsi) -> bool
-        classify_zone_fn: callable(lat, lon) -> dict (zone 판정)
+        df: 선박 위치 DataFrame (mmsi, lat, lon, sog 필수)
+        pair_history: 호출 간 유지되는 쌍 상태 dict
+        get_vessel_info: mmsi → {ship_kind_code, ship_ty, name, heading, ...}
+        is_permitted: mmsi → bool (허가 어선 여부)
+        classify_zone_fn: (lat, lon) → {zone, ...}
         now_kst_hour: 현재 KST 시각 (0~23)
 
     Returns:
-        list[dict] — severity 'CRITICAL'/'HIGH'/'WATCH' 포함 의심 쌍
+        list[dict] — 의심 쌍 (score >= 50만)
     """
     if df.empty:
         return []
 
     required_cols = {'mmsi', 'lat', 'lon', 'sog'}
-    missing = required_cols - set(df.columns)
-    if missing:
-        logger.error('detect_transshipment: missing required columns: %s', missing)
+    if required_cols - set(df.columns):
         return []
 
     now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
 
-    # ── 1. 후보 선박 필터 (SOG < 1.0) ─────────────────────────
-    candidate_mask = df['sog'] < SOG_THRESHOLD_KN
-    candidates = df[candidate_mask].copy()
-
-    if candidates.empty:
-        _evict_expired_pairs(pair_history, now)
-        return []
-
-    # 외국 해안 근처 제외 (1차 필터)
-    coast_mask = candidates.apply(
-        lambda row: not _is_near_foreign_coast(row['lat'], row['lon']),
-        axis=1,
-    )
-    candidates = candidates[coast_mask]
-
+    # ── Stage 1+2: 후보 필터 ──────────────────────────────
+    # SOG < 2kn 선박만
+    candidates = df[df['sog'] < SOG_THRESHOLD_KN].copy()
     if len(candidates) < 2:
-        _evict_expired_pairs(pair_history, now)
+        _evict_expired(pair_history, now)
         return []
 
-    has_cog = 'cog' in candidates.columns
-    cols = ['mmsi', 'lat', 'lon']
-    if has_cog:
-        cols.append('cog')
-    records = candidates[cols].to_dict('records')
-    for rec in records:
-        rec['mmsi'] = str(rec['mmsi'])
+    # 선종 + 감시영역 필터 → 유효 레코드만
+    records: list[dict] = []
+    for _, row in candidates.iterrows():
+        mmsi = str(row['mmsi'])
+        lat, lon = float(row['lat']), float(row['lon'])
 
-    # ── 2. 그리드 기반 근접 쌍 탐지 (77m) ───────────────────
-    grid = _build_grid(records)
+        # Stage 2: 감시영역 내 여부
+        zone_id = _is_in_transship_zone(lat, lon)
+        if zone_id is None:
+            continue
+
+        # Stage 1: 선종 분류
+        info = get_vessel_info(mmsi) if get_vessel_info else {}
+        kind = info.get('ship_kind_code', '')
+        ship_ty = info.get('ship_ty', info.get('vessel_type', ''))
+        role = _classify_vessel_role(kind, ship_ty)
+        if role in ('EXCLUDED', 'UNKNOWN'):
+            continue
+
+        # 어구 신호명 제외
+        if _is_gear_name(info.get('name')):
+            continue
+
+        rec = {
+            'mmsi': mmsi, 'lat': lat, 'lon': lon,
+            'role': role, 'zone_id': zone_id,
+            'cog': float(row.get('cog', 0)),
+        }
+        records.append(rec)
+
+    if len(records) < 2:
+        _evict_expired(pair_history, now)
+        return []
+
+    # 역할별 분리
+    fishing_recs = [r for r in records if r['role'] == 'FISHING']
+    carrier_recs = [r for r in records if r['role'] == 'CARRIER']
+
+    if not fishing_recs or not carrier_recs:
+        _evict_expired(pair_history, now)
+        return []
+
+    # ── 그리드 기반 근접 쌍 탐지 (어선 × 운반선만) ──────
+    carrier_grid = _build_grid(carrier_recs)
     active_pairs: dict[tuple[str, str], dict] = {}
 
-    def _try_add_pair(a_rec, b_rec):
-        if not _within_proximity(a_rec, b_rec):
-            return
-        key = _pair_key(a_rec['mmsi'], b_rec['mmsi'])
-        # 중점 좌표 (점수 산출용)
-        mid_lat = (a_rec['lat'] + b_rec['lat']) / 2.0
-        mid_lon = (a_rec['lon'] + b_rec['lon']) / 2.0
-        active_pairs[key] = {
-            'lat': mid_lat, 'lon': mid_lon,
-            'cog_a': a_rec.get('cog'), 'cog_b': b_rec.get('cog'),
-            # mmsi_a < mmsi_b 순서로 정렬되었으므로 cog도 맞춰 정렬 필요
-            'mmsi_a': a_rec['mmsi'], 'mmsi_b': b_rec['mmsi'],
-        }
+    for f_rec in fishing_recs:
+        f_cell = _cell_key(f_rec['lat'], f_rec['lon'])
+        # 인접 9셀 탐색
+        for dr in (-1, 0, 1):
+            for dc in (-1, 0, 1):
+                neighbor = (f_cell[0] + dr, f_cell[1] + dc)
+                if neighbor not in carrier_grid:
+                    continue
+                for ci in carrier_grid[neighbor]:
+                    c_rec = carrier_recs[ci]
+                    is_close = _within_proximity(f_rec, c_rec)
+                    is_approaching = _within_approach(f_rec, c_rec) if not is_close else False
 
-    for (row, col), indices in grid.items():
-        for i in range(len(indices)):
-            for j in range(i + 1, len(indices)):
-                _try_add_pair(records[indices[i]], records[indices[j]])
-        for dr, dc in ((0, 1), (1, -1), (1, 0), (1, 1)):
-            neighbor_key = (row + dr, col + dc)
-            if neighbor_key not in grid:
-                continue
-            for ai in indices:
-                for bi in grid[neighbor_key]:
-                    _try_add_pair(records[ai], records[bi])
+                    if not is_close and not is_approaching:
+                        continue
 
-    # ── 3. pair_history 갱신 (gap tolerance) ─────────────────
-    active_keys = set(active_pairs.keys())
+                    key = _pair_key(f_rec['mmsi'], c_rec['mmsi'])
+                    mid_lat = (f_rec['lat'] + c_rec['lat']) / 2
+                    mid_lon = (f_rec['lon'] + c_rec['lon']) / 2
 
-    # 활성 쌍 → 등록/갱신
-    for pair in active_keys:
-        if pair not in pair_history or not isinstance(pair_history[pair], dict):
-            pair_history[pair] = {
-                'first_seen': now,
-                'last_seen': now,
+                    active_pairs[key] = {
+                        'is_close': is_close,
+                        'is_approaching': is_approaching,
+                        'lat': mid_lat, 'lon': mid_lon,
+                        'zone_id': f_rec['zone_id'],
+                        'role_a': 'FISHING' if key[0] == f_rec['mmsi'] else 'CARRIER',
+                        'role_b': 'CARRIER' if key[0] == f_rec['mmsi'] else 'FISHING',
+                    }
+
+    # ── Stage 3: pair_history 상태머신 갱신 ─────────────
+    for key, loc in active_pairs.items():
+        meta = pair_history.get(key)
+        if meta is None or not isinstance(meta, dict):
+            # 신규 쌍
+            meta = {
+                'pair': key,
+                'phase': 'APPROACH' if loc['is_approaching'] else 'RENDEZVOUS',
+                'approach_detected': loc['is_approaching'],
+                'rendezvous_start': now if loc['is_close'] else None,
+                'departure_detected': False,
                 'miss_count': 0,
+                'last_lat': loc['lat'],
+                'last_lon': loc['lon'],
+                'zone_id': loc['zone_id'],
+                'role_a': loc['role_a'],
+                'role_b': loc['role_b'],
             }
-        else:
-            pair_history[pair]['last_seen'] = now
-            pair_history[pair]['miss_count'] = 0
+            pair_history[key] = meta
+            continue
 
-    # 비활성 쌍 → miss_count++ , GAP_TOLERANCE 초과 시 삭제
+        meta['miss_count'] = 0
+        meta['last_lat'] = loc['lat']
+        meta['last_lon'] = loc['lon']
+
+        if loc['is_close']:
+            if meta['phase'] == 'APPROACH':
+                # 접근 → 체류 전환
+                meta['phase'] = 'RENDEZVOUS'
+                meta['approach_detected'] = True
+                meta['rendezvous_start'] = meta.get('rendezvous_start') or now
+            elif meta['phase'] == 'DEPARTURE':
+                # 분리 후 재접근 → 체류 재개
+                meta['phase'] = 'RENDEZVOUS'
+            # RENDEZVOUS 상태 유지
+            if meta.get('rendezvous_start') is None:
+                meta['rendezvous_start'] = now
+
+        elif loc['is_approaching']:
+            if meta['phase'] == 'RENDEZVOUS':
+                # 체류 중 이격 시작 → 분리 단계
+                meta['phase'] = 'DEPARTURE'
+                meta['departure_detected'] = True
+            elif meta['phase'] == 'APPROACH':
+                meta['approach_detected'] = True
+
+    # 비활성 쌍 miss_count++
     for key in list(pair_history.keys()):
-        if key in active_keys:
+        if key in active_pairs:
             continue
         meta = pair_history[key]
         if not isinstance(meta, dict):
             del pair_history[key]
             continue
+
         meta['miss_count'] = meta.get('miss_count', 0) + 1
+
+        # 체류 중이던 쌍이 miss → 분리 가능
+        if meta.get('phase') == 'RENDEZVOUS' and meta['miss_count'] >= 2:
+            meta['phase'] = 'DEPARTURE'
+            meta['departure_detected'] = True
+
         if meta['miss_count'] > GAP_TOLERANCE_CYCLES:
             del pair_history[key]
 
-    # 만료 정리
-    _evict_expired_pairs(pair_history, now)
+    _evict_expired(pair_history, now)
 
-    # ── 4. 점수 기반 의심 쌍 판정 ─────────────────────────────
-    suspects: list[dict] = []
-    rejected_jurisdiction = 0
-    rejected_ship_type = 0
-    rejected_gear = 0
-    rejected_duration = 0
-
-    for pair, meta in pair_history.items():
+    # ── Stage 4+5: 점수 산출 + 밀집 방폭 ────────────────
+    raw_suspects: list[dict] = []
+    for key, meta in pair_history.items():
         if not isinstance(meta, dict):
             continue
-        first_seen = meta.get('first_seen')
-        if first_seen is None:
-            continue
 
-        # active_pairs에 있으면 해당 사이클 좌표·cog 사용, 없으면 이전 값 재사용 (miss 중)
-        loc_meta = active_pairs.get(pair)
-        if loc_meta is not None:
-            lat = loc_meta['lat']
-            lon = loc_meta['lon']
-            # mmsi_a, mmsi_b 순서를 pair 순서에 맞춤
-            if loc_meta['mmsi_a'] == pair[0]:
-                cog_a, cog_b = loc_meta.get('cog_a'), loc_meta.get('cog_b')
-            else:
-                cog_a, cog_b = loc_meta.get('cog_b'), loc_meta.get('cog_a')
-            meta['last_lat'] = lat
-            meta['last_lon'] = lon
-            meta['last_cog_a'] = cog_a
-            meta['last_cog_b'] = cog_b
-        else:
-            lat = meta.get('last_lat')
-            lon = meta.get('last_lon')
-            cog_a = meta.get('last_cog_a')
-            cog_b = meta.get('last_cog_b')
-            if lat is None or lon is None:
-                continue
-
-        # 선박 정보 조회
-        info_a = get_vessel_info(pair[0]) if get_vessel_info else {}
-        info_b = get_vessel_info(pair[1]) if get_vessel_info else {}
-
-        # 짧게 pre-check (로깅용)
-        if not _is_in_kr_jurisdiction(lat, lon):
-            rejected_jurisdiction += 1
-            continue
-        if not _is_candidate_ship_type(info_a.get('vessel_type'), info_b.get('vessel_type')):
-            rejected_ship_type += 1
-            continue
-        if _is_gear_name(info_a.get('name')) or _is_gear_name(info_b.get('name')):
-            rejected_gear += 1
-            continue
-
-        duration_min = int((now - first_seen).total_seconds() / 60)
-        if duration_min < SUSPECT_DURATION_MIN:
-            rejected_duration += 1
-            continue
-
-        zone_code = None
-        if classify_zone_fn is not None:
-            try:
-                zone_code = classify_zone_fn(lat, lon).get('zone')
-            except Exception:
-                pass
+        info_a = get_vessel_info(key[0]) if get_vessel_info else {}
+        info_b = get_vessel_info(key[1]) if get_vessel_info else {}
 
         scored = _score_pair(
-            pair, meta, lat, lon, cog_a, cog_b,
-            info_a, info_b, is_permitted,
-            now_kst_hour, zone_code, now,
+            meta, now, is_permitted, now_kst_hour,
+            meta.get('zone_id'), info_a, info_b,
         )
         if scored is not None:
-            suspects.append(scored)
+            raw_suspects.append(scored)
 
-    tier_counts = {'CRITICAL': 0, 'HIGH': 0, 'WATCH': 0}
+    # Stage 5: 밀집 방폭 — 1 운반선 : 최대 1 어선 (최고 점수)
+    carrier_best: dict[str, dict] = {}
+    for s in raw_suspects:
+        carrier = s['carrier_mmsi']
+        if carrier not in carrier_best or s['score'] > carrier_best[carrier]['score']:
+            carrier_best[carrier] = s
+
+    suspects = list(carrier_best.values())
+
+    # 로그
+    tier_counts = {'CRITICAL': 0, 'HIGH': 0}
     for s in suspects:
         tier_counts[s['severity']] = tier_counts.get(s['severity'], 0) + 1
 
     logger.info(
-        'transshipment detection: pairs=%d (critical=%d, high=%d, watch=%d, '
-        'rejected_jurisdiction=%d, rejected_ship_type=%d, rejected_gear=%d, '
-        'rejected_duration=%d, candidates=%d)',
-        len(suspects),
-        tier_counts.get('CRITICAL', 0),
-        tier_counts.get('HIGH', 0),
-        tier_counts.get('WATCH', 0),
-        rejected_jurisdiction,
-        rejected_ship_type,
-        rejected_gear,
-        rejected_duration,
-        len(candidates),
+        'transshipment: pairs=%d (critical=%d, high=%d), '
+        'candidates: fishing=%d carrier=%d, active_pairs=%d, history=%d',
+        len(suspects), tier_counts.get('CRITICAL', 0), tier_counts.get('HIGH', 0),
+        len(fishing_recs), len(carrier_recs), len(active_pairs), len(pair_history),
     )
 
     return suspects
+
+
+def _evict_expired(pair_history: dict, now: datetime) -> None:
+    """PAIR_EXPIRY_MIN 이상 갱신 없는 쌍 제거."""
+    expired = []
+    for key, meta in pair_history.items():
+        if not isinstance(meta, dict):
+            expired.append(key)
+            continue
+        miss = meta.get('miss_count', 0)
+        if miss > GAP_TOLERANCE_CYCLES:
+            expired.append(key)
+    for key in expired:
+        del pair_history[key]

prediction/cache/vessel_store.py

@@ -254,7 +254,12 @@ class VesselStore:
         mmsi_list = list(self._tracks.keys())
         try:
             info = snpdb.fetch_static_info(mmsi_list)
-            self._static_info.update(info)
+            # SNPDB 필드(name, vessel_type, length, width)만 갱신하되
+            # signal-batch에서 추가한 필드(ship_kind_code, status, heading 등)는 보존
+            for mmsi, snpdb_info in info.items():
+                existing = self._static_info.get(mmsi, {})
+                existing.update(snpdb_info)  # SNPDB 필드 덮어쓰기 (signal-batch 필드는 유지)
+                self._static_info[mmsi] = existing
             self._static_refreshed_at = now
             logger.info('static info refreshed: %d vessels', len(info))
         except Exception as e:
@@ -285,6 +290,45 @@ class VesselStore:
         except Exception as e:
             logger.error('fetch_permit_mmsis failed: %s', e)
 
+    # ------------------------------------------------------------------
+    # Signal-batch API 정적정보 보강
+    # ------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+    def enrich_from_signal_api(self, minutes: int = 10) -> None:
+        """signal-batch recent-positions-detail API에서 정적정보 보강.
+
+        shipKindCode, status, heading, draught 등 SNPDB에 없는 필드를 수집하여
+        _static_info에 merge. 기존 SNPDB 정적정보(name, vessel_type 등)는 유지.
+
+        Args:
+            minutes: API 조회 시간 범위 (기본 10분, 초기 로드 시 120분)
+        """
+        from db.signal_api import signal_client, _KR_WATERS_POLYGON
+
+        try:
+            raw = signal_client.fetch_recent_detail(
+                minutes=minutes,
+                polygon=_KR_WATERS_POLYGON,
+            )
+            if not raw:
+                return
+
+            parsed = signal_client.parse_static_info(raw)
+            enriched = 0
+            for mmsi, new_info in parsed.items():
+                existing = self._static_info.get(mmsi, {})
+                # 신규 필드만 merge (기존 값 덮어쓰기)
+                existing.update(new_info)
+                self._static_info[mmsi] = existing
+                enriched += 1
+
+            logger.info(
+                'signal-batch enrich: %d vessels enriched (minutes=%d, api_total=%d)',
+                enriched, minutes, len(raw),
+            )
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.warning('enrich_from_signal_api failed: %s', e)
+
     # ------------------------------------------------------------------
     # Analysis target selection
     # ------------------------------------------------------------------

prediction/config.py

@@ -36,6 +36,10 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     MMSI_PREFIX: str = '412'
     MIN_TRAJ_POINTS: int = 100
 
+    # signal-batch API (gc-signal-batch — 정적정보 보강용)
+    SIGNAL_BATCH_URL: str = 'http://192.168.1.18:18090/signal-batch'
+    SIGNAL_BATCH_TIMEOUT: int = 60
+
     # Ollama (LLM)
     OLLAMA_BASE_URL: str = 'http://localhost:11434'
     OLLAMA_MODEL: str = 'qwen3:14b'  # CPU-only: 14b 권장, GPU 있으면 32b

prediction/data/monitoring_zones.json

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+{
+  "description": "해양 감시영역 정의 — 환적/불법조업 탐지 범위. 향후 DB 테이블로 이관 + 프론트엔드 운영자 편집 가능.",
+  "zones": [
+    {
+      "id": "TS-001",
+      "name": "서해 EEZ 경계 (환적 고위험)",
+      "type": "TRANSSHIP",
+      "description": "서해 EEZ 외측 ~ 중국 근해 접경. 중국 어선-운반선 환적 주요 발생 해역.",
+      "polygon": [[124.0, 33.0], [125.8, 33.0], [125.8, 37.5], [124.0, 37.5], [124.0, 33.0]],
+      "enabled": true
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "TS-002",
+      "name": "남해 외해 (환적 관심)",
+      "type": "TRANSSHIP",
+      "description": "제주 남방 ~ 동중국해 접경. 원양 운반선 환적 경유 해역.",
+      "polygon": [[125.0, 31.5], [130.0, 31.5], [130.0, 33.5], [125.0, 33.5], [125.0, 31.5]],
+      "enabled": true
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "TS-003",
+      "name": "동해 북방 (환적 관심)",
+      "type": "TRANSSHIP",
+      "description": "동해 중부 ~ 일본해 경계. 오징어잡이 환적 발생 해역.",
+      "polygon": [[129.0, 36.0], [131.5, 36.0], [131.5, 38.5], [129.0, 38.5], [129.0, 36.0]],
+      "enabled": true
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "FZ-001",
+      "name": "서해 특정어업수역",
+      "type": "FISHING",
+      "description": "한중어업협정 특정어업수역. 불법조업 탐지 대상.",
+      "polygon": [[124.0, 34.5], [126.0, 34.5], [126.0, 37.0], [124.5, 37.0], [124.0, 36.0], [124.0, 34.5]],
+      "enabled": true
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "FZ-002",
+      "name": "제주 남방 수역",
+      "type": "FISHING",
+      "description": "제주 남방 EEZ 내 불법조업 빈발 해역.",
+      "polygon": [[125.5, 32.0], [127.5, 32.0], [127.5, 33.2], [125.5, 33.2], [125.5, 32.0]],
+      "enabled": true
+    }
+  ]
+}

prediction/db/signal_api.py

@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+"""signal-batch API 클라이언트 — gc-signal-batch(192.168.1.18:18090) HTTP 연동.
+
+데이터 소스: S&P Global AIS API → gc-signal-batch L0 캐시(Caffeine, 120분 TTL)
+용도: 정적정보 보강 (shipKindCode, status, heading, draught 등)
+궤적 소스는 SNPDB 유지 — 이 모듈은 정적정보 전용.
+
+호출 전략:
+  - 초기 로드: minutes=120 (L0 캐시 전체, 412* ~3,150척)
+  - 5분 주기 보강: minutes=10 (직전 2사이클분, 412* ~728척)
+  - gc-signal-batch 수집 주기: 매 분 :45초 → 호출 시점 :50초 이후 권장
+"""
+
+import logging
+from typing import Optional
+
+import httpx
+
+from config import settings
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+_KR_WATERS_POLYGON = [[122, 31], [132, 31], [132, 39], [122, 39], [122, 31]]
+
+
+class SignalBatchClient:
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        base_url: str = '',
+        timeout_sec: int = 60,
+    ) -> None:
+        self._base_url = (base_url or settings.SIGNAL_BATCH_URL).rstrip('/')
+        self._timeout = timeout_sec
+
+    def fetch_recent_detail(
+        self,
+        minutes: int = 10,
+        polygon: Optional[list[list[float]]] = None,
+    ) -> list[dict]:
+        """POST /api/v1/vessels/recent-positions-detail
+
+        L0 캐시(AisTargetCacheManager)에서 직접 조회.
+        공간 필터(폴리곤) 적용 가능.
+
+        Returns:
+            list[dict] — RecentPositionDetailResponse 배열
+            각 dict 필드:
+              mmsi, imo, lon, lat, sog, cog, heading,
+              shipNm, shipTy(텍스트 선종), shipKindCode(6자리 코드),
+              nationalCode(MID 숫자), status(항해상태 텍스트),
+              destination, eta, draught, length, width, lastUpdate
+        """
+        url = f'{self._base_url}/api/v1/vessels/recent-positions-detail'
+        body: dict = {'minutes': minutes}
+        if polygon:
+            body['coordinates'] = polygon
+
+        try:
+            with httpx.Client(timeout=self._timeout) as client:
+                resp = client.post(url, json=body)
+                resp.raise_for_status()
+                data = resp.json()
+                logger.info(
+                    'fetch_recent_detail: %d vessels (minutes=%d)',
+                    len(data), minutes,
+                )
+                return data
+        except httpx.TimeoutException:
+            logger.warning('fetch_recent_detail timeout (%ds)', self._timeout)
+            return []
+        except httpx.HTTPStatusError as e:
+            logger.warning('fetch_recent_detail HTTP %d: %s', e.response.status_code, e)
+            return []
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.error('fetch_recent_detail failed: %s', e)
+            return []
+
+    def fetch_area_tracks(
+        self,
+        start_time: str,
+        end_time: str,
+        polygon: Optional[list[list[float]]] = None,
+    ) -> dict:
+        """POST /api/v2/tracks/area-search
+
+        D-1~D-7 인메모리 캐시 기반 항적 조회.
+        503 시 캐시 미준비 상태.
+
+        Returns:
+            dict — AreaSearchResponse {tracks, hitDetails, summary}
+        """
+        url = f'{self._base_url}/api/v2/tracks/area-search'
+        body = {
+            'startTime': start_time,
+            'endTime': end_time,
+            'polygons': [{
+                'id': 'kr-waters',
+                'name': '한국 해역',
+                'coordinates': polygon or _KR_WATERS_POLYGON,
+            }],
+        }
+
+        try:
+            with httpx.Client(timeout=self._timeout) as client:
+                resp = client.post(url, json=body)
+                resp.raise_for_status()
+                data = resp.json()
+                tracks = data.get('tracks', [])
+                logger.info(
+                    'fetch_area_tracks: %d tracks (%s ~ %s)',
+                    len(tracks), start_time, end_time,
+                )
+                return data
+        except httpx.HTTPStatusError as e:
+            if e.response.status_code == 503:
+                logger.warning('area-search: cache not ready (503)')
+            else:
+                logger.warning('area-search HTTP %d', e.response.status_code)
+            return {}
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.error('fetch_area_tracks failed: %s', e)
+            return {}
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def parse_static_info(detail_response: list[dict]) -> dict[str, dict]:
+        """recent-positions-detail 응답에서 정적정보 dict 추출.
+
+        Returns:
+            {mmsi: {ship_kind_code, ship_ty, national_code, status,
+                    heading, draught, destination, name, length, width}}
+        """
+        result: dict[str, dict] = {}
+        for item in detail_response:
+            mmsi = str(item.get('mmsi', ''))
+            if not mmsi:
+                continue
+
+            info: dict = {}
+            # 선종 (6자리 코드: 000020=어선, 000023=화물, 000028=미분류)
+            if item.get('shipKindCode'):
+                info['ship_kind_code'] = item['shipKindCode']
+            # 텍스트 선종 ("Cargo", "Tanker", "Vessel", "N/A")
+            if item.get('shipTy'):
+                info['ship_ty'] = item['shipTy']
+            # 국적 MID ("412"=중국, "440"=한국)
+            if item.get('nationalCode'):
+                info['national_code'] = item['nationalCode']
+            # 항해 상태 ("Under way using engine", "Anchored", "N/A")
+            if item.get('status') and item['status'] != 'N/A':
+                info['status'] = item['status']
+            # 선수 방향
+            if item.get('heading') is not None:
+                info['heading'] = float(item['heading'])
+            # 흘수
+            if item.get('draught') is not None and item['draught'] > 0:
+                info['draught'] = float(item['draught'])
+            # 목적지
+            if item.get('destination'):
+                info['destination'] = item['destination']
+            # 기본 정보 (기존 SNPDB 정적정보와 동일 필드)
+            if item.get('shipNm'):
+                info['name'] = item['shipNm']
+            if item.get('length') and item['length'] > 0:
+                info['length'] = int(item['length'])
+            if item.get('width') and item['width'] > 0:
+                info['width'] = int(item['width'])
+
+            if info:
+                result[mmsi] = info
+
+        return result
+
+
+# 모듈 레벨 싱글턴
+signal_client = SignalBatchClient()

prediction/main.py

@@ -31,6 +31,10 @@ async def lifespan(application: FastAPI):
     vessel_store.load_initial(settings.INITIAL_LOAD_HOURS)
     logger.info('initial load complete: %s', vessel_store.stats())
 
+    # signal-batch API에서 정적정보 초기 보강 (120분 범위, 최대 커버리지)
+    vessel_store.enrich_from_signal_api(minutes=120)
+    logger.info('signal-batch enrich complete')
+
     start_scheduler()
     yield
     stop_scheduler()

prediction/scheduler.py

@@ -52,11 +52,12 @@ def _fetch_dark_history(kcg_conn, mmsi_list: list[str]) -> dict[str, dict]:
         cur.execute(
             """
             SELECT mmsi,
-                   count(*) AS n7,
-                   count(*) FILTER (WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '24 hours') AS n24,
+                   count(DISTINCT analyzed_at::date) AS n7,
+                   count(DISTINCT analyzed_at::date) FILTER (WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '24 hours') AS n24,
                    max(analyzed_at) AS last_at
             FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
             WHERE is_dark = true
+              AND gap_duration_min >= 100
               AND analyzed_at > now() - interval '7 days'
               AND mmsi = ANY(%s)
             GROUP BY mmsi
@@ -107,6 +108,8 @@ def run_analysis_cycle():
         # 정적정보 / 허가어선 주기적 갱신
         vessel_store.refresh_static_info()
         vessel_store.refresh_permit_registry()
+        # signal-batch API 정적정보 보강 (shipKindCode, status, heading, draught 등)
+        vessel_store.enrich_from_signal_api(minutes=10)
 
         # 2. 분석 대상 선별 (SOG/COG 계산 포함)
         df_targets = vessel_store.select_analysis_targets()
@@ -247,9 +250,15 @@ def run_analysis_cycle():
                 dark = bool(gap_info.get('is_dark'))
                 gap_min = int(gap_info.get('gap_min') or 0)
                 history = dark_history_map.get(mmsi, {'count_7d': 0, 'count_24h': 0})
+                v_info = vessel_store.get_vessel_info(mmsi)
+                last_cog_val = float(df_v.iloc[-1].get('cog', 0)) if len(df_v) > 0 else None
                 score, patterns, tier = compute_dark_suspicion(
                     gap_info, mmsi, is_permitted, history,
                     now_kst_hour, classify_zone,
+                    ship_kind_code=v_info.get('ship_kind_code', ''),
+                    nav_status=v_info.get('status', ''),
+                    heading=v_info.get('heading'),
+                    last_cog=last_cog_val,
                 )
                 pipeline_dark_tiers[tier] = pipeline_dark_tiers.get(tier, 0) + 1
                 dark_features = {
@@ -385,9 +394,15 @@ def run_analysis_cycle():
                     gap_min = int(gap_info.get('gap_min') or 0)
 
                     history = dark_history_map.get(mmsi, {'count_7d': 0, 'count_24h': 0})
+                    lw_info = vessel_store.get_vessel_info(mmsi)
+                    lw_last_cog = float(df_v.iloc[-1].get('cog', 0)) if df_v is not None and len(df_v) > 0 else None
                     score, patterns, tier = compute_dark_suspicion(
                         gap_info, mmsi, is_permitted, history,
                         now_kst_hour, classify_zone,
+                        ship_kind_code=lw_info.get('ship_kind_code', ''),
+                        nav_status=lw_info.get('status', ''),
+                        heading=lw_info.get('heading'),
+                        last_cog=lw_last_cog,
                     )
                     lw_dark_tiers[tier] = lw_dark_tiers.get(tier, 0) + 1
 

prediction/scripts/diagnostic-snapshot.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,326 @@
+#!/bin/bash
+# prediction 알고리즘 진단 스냅샷 수집기 (5분 주기, 수동 종료까지 연속 실행)
+#
+# 용도: 알고리즘 재설계 후 동작 검증용. 단순 집계가 아닌 개별 판정 과정 추적.
+# 실행: nohup bash /home/apps/kcg-ai-prediction/scripts/diagnostic-snapshot.sh &
+# 종료: kill $(cat /home/apps/kcg-ai-prediction/data/diag/diag.pid)
+# 출력: /home/apps/kcg-ai-prediction/data/diag/YYYYMMDD-HHMM.txt
+
+set -u
+
+OUTDIR=/home/apps/kcg-ai-prediction/data/diag
+mkdir -p "$OUTDIR"
+echo $$ > "$OUTDIR/diag.pid"
+
+export PGPASSWORD=Kcg2026ai
+PSQL="psql -U kcg-app -d kcgaidb -h 211.208.115.83 -P pager=off -x"
+PSQL_TABLE="psql -U kcg-app -d kcgaidb -h 211.208.115.83 -P pager=off"
+
+INTERVAL_SEC=300  # 5분
+
+while true; do
+
+STAMP=$(date '+%Y%m%d-%H%M')
+OUT="$OUTDIR/$STAMP.txt"
+
+{
+echo "###################################################################"
+echo "# PREDICTION DIAGNOSTIC SNAPSHOT"
+echo "# generated: $(date '+%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S %Z')"
+echo "# host: $(hostname)"
+echo "# interval: ${INTERVAL_SEC}s"
+echo "###################################################################"
+
+#===================================================================
+# PART 1: 종합 지표
+#===================================================================
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "PART 1: 종합 지표 (last 5min)"
+echo "================================================================="
+
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT count(*) total,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE vessel_type != 'UNKNOWN') pipeline,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE vessel_type = 'UNKNOWN') lightweight,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE is_dark) dark,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE transship_suspect) transship,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE risk_level='CRITICAL') crit,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE risk_level='HIGH') high,
+       round(avg(risk_score)::numeric, 1) avg_risk,
+       max(risk_score) max_risk,
+       round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE is_dark)::numeric / NULLIF(count(*), 0) * 100, 1) AS dark_pct
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes';
+SQL
+
+#===================================================================
+# PART 2: 다크베셀 심층 진단
+#===================================================================
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "PART 2: DARK VESSEL 심층 진단"
+echo "================================================================="
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 2-1. dark_suspicion_score 히스토그램 ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT CASE
+  WHEN (features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int >= 90 THEN 'a_90-100 (CRITICAL_HIGH)'
+  WHEN (features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int >= 70 THEN 'b_70-89  (CRITICAL)'
+  WHEN (features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int >= 50 THEN 'c_50-69  (HIGH)'
+  WHEN (features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int >= 30 THEN 'd_30-49  (WATCH)'
+  WHEN (features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int >= 1  THEN 'e_1-29   (NONE_SCORED)'
+  ELSE 'f_0      (NOT_DARK)'
+  END bucket,
+  count(*) cnt,
+  round(avg(gap_duration_min)::numeric, 0) avg_gap_min,
+  round(avg(risk_score)::numeric, 1) avg_risk
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND is_dark = true
+GROUP BY bucket ORDER BY bucket;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 2-2. dark_patterns 발동 빈도 (어떤 규칙이 얼마나 적용되는지) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT pattern,
+       count(*) cnt,
+       round(count(*)::numeric / NULLIF((SELECT count(*) FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+         WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes' AND is_dark), 0) * 100, 1) AS pct
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results,
+     LATERAL jsonb_array_elements_text(features->'dark_patterns') AS pattern
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND is_dark = true
+GROUP BY pattern ORDER BY cnt DESC;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 2-3. P9 선종별 dark 분포 (신규 패턴 검증) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT
+  CASE WHEN features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%fishing_vessel_dark%' THEN 'FISHING(+10)'
+       WHEN features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%cargo_natural_gap%' THEN 'CARGO(-10)'
+       ELSE 'NO_KIND_EFFECT' END AS p9_effect,
+  count(*) cnt,
+  round(avg((features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int)::numeric, 1) avg_score,
+  round(avg(gap_duration_min)::numeric, 0) avg_gap
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND is_dark = true
+GROUP BY p9_effect ORDER BY cnt DESC;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 2-4. P10 항해상태 dark 분포 (신규 패턴 검증) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT
+  CASE WHEN features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%underway_deliberate_off%' THEN 'UNDERWAY_OFF(+20)'
+       WHEN features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%anchored_natural_gap%' THEN 'ANCHORED(-15)'
+       ELSE 'NO_STATUS_EFFECT' END AS p10_effect,
+  count(*) cnt,
+  round(avg((features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int)::numeric, 1) avg_score
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND is_dark = true
+GROUP BY p10_effect ORDER BY cnt DESC;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 2-5. P11 heading/COG 불일치 (신규 패턴 검증) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT
+  CASE WHEN features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%heading_cog_mismatch%' THEN 'MISMATCH(+15)'
+       ELSE 'NO_MISMATCH' END AS p11_effect,
+  count(*) cnt,
+  round(avg((features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int)::numeric, 1) avg_score
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND is_dark = true
+GROUP BY p11_effect ORDER BY cnt DESC;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 2-6. GAP 구간별 dark_tier 교차표 (임계값 100분 검증) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT CASE
+  WHEN gap_duration_min < 100 THEN 'a_lt100 (NOT_DARK 예상)'
+  WHEN gap_duration_min < 180 THEN 'b_100-179'
+  WHEN gap_duration_min < 360 THEN 'c_180-359'
+  WHEN gap_duration_min < 720 THEN 'd_360-719'
+  ELSE 'e_gte720' END gap_bucket,
+  count(*) total,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE is_dark) dark,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_tier' = 'CRITICAL') crit,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_tier' = 'HIGH') high,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_tier' = 'WATCH') watch,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_tier' = 'NONE') tier_none
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+GROUP BY gap_bucket ORDER BY gap_bucket;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 2-7. CRITICAL dark 상위 10건 (개별 판정 상세) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT mmsi, gap_duration_min, zone_code, activity_state,
+       (features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int AS score,
+       features->>'dark_tier' AS tier,
+       features->>'dark_patterns' AS patterns,
+       risk_score, risk_level
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND features->>'dark_tier' = 'CRITICAL'
+ORDER BY (features->>'dark_suspicion_score')::int DESC
+LIMIT 10;
+SQL
+
+#===================================================================
+# PART 3: 환적 탐지 심층 진단
+#===================================================================
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "PART 3: TRANSSHIPMENT 심층 진단"
+echo "================================================================="
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 3-1. 환적 의심 건수 + 점수 분포 ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT count(*) total_suspects,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE (features->>'transship_score')::numeric >= 70) critical,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE (features->>'transship_score')::numeric >= 50
+                          AND (features->>'transship_score')::numeric < 70) high,
+       round(avg((features->>'transship_score')::numeric)::numeric, 1) avg_score,
+       round(avg(transship_duration_min)::numeric, 0) avg_duration_min
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND transship_suspect = true;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 3-2. 환적 의심 개별 건 상세 (전체) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT mmsi, transship_pair_mmsi AS pair_mmsi,
+       transship_duration_min AS dur_min,
+       (features->>'transship_score')::numeric AS score,
+       features->>'transship_tier' AS tier,
+       zone_code,
+       activity_state,
+       risk_score
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+  AND transship_suspect = true
+ORDER BY (features->>'transship_score')::numeric DESC;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 3-3. 환적 후보 선종 분포 (Stage 1 이종 쌍 검증) ---"
+echo "   (이 쿼리는 journalctl 로그에서 추출)"
+journalctl -u kcg-ai-prediction --since '6 minutes ago' --no-pager 2>/dev/null | \
+  grep -o 'transshipment:.*' | tail -1
+
+#===================================================================
+# PART 4: 이벤트 + KPI
+#===================================================================
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "PART 4: 이벤트 + KPI (시스템 출력 검증)"
+echo "================================================================="
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 4-1. prediction_events (last 5min) ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT category, level, count(*) cnt
+FROM kcg.prediction_events
+WHERE created_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+GROUP BY category, level ORDER BY cnt DESC;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 4-2. KPI 실시간 ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT kpi_key, value, trend, delta_pct, updated_at
+FROM kcg.prediction_kpi_realtime ORDER BY kpi_key;
+SQL
+
+#===================================================================
+# PART 5: signal-batch 정적정보 보강 검증
+#===================================================================
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "PART 5: signal-batch 정적정보 보강 검증"
+echo "================================================================="
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 5-1. 직전 사이클 enrich 로그 ---"
+journalctl -u kcg-ai-prediction --since '6 minutes ago' --no-pager 2>/dev/null | \
+  grep -E 'signal-batch enrich|fetch_recent_detail' | tail -2
+
+echo ""
+echo "--- 5-2. features 내 신규 패턴(P9/P10/P11) 적용 비율 ---"
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+WITH dark_vessels AS (
+  SELECT features FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+  WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes' AND is_dark = true
+)
+SELECT
+  count(*) AS total_dark,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%fishing_vessel_dark%'
+                      OR features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%cargo_natural_gap%') AS p9_applied,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%underway_deliberate_off%'
+                      OR features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%anchored_natural_gap%') AS p10_applied,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%heading_cog_mismatch%') AS p11_applied,
+  round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%fishing_vessel_dark%'
+                            OR features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%cargo_natural_gap%')::numeric
+        / NULLIF(count(*), 0) * 100, 1) AS p9_pct,
+  round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%underway_deliberate_off%'
+                            OR features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%anchored_natural_gap%')::numeric
+        / NULLIF(count(*), 0) * 100, 1) AS p10_pct,
+  round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE features->>'dark_patterns' LIKE '%heading_cog_mismatch%')::numeric
+        / NULLIF(count(*), 0) * 100, 1) AS p11_pct
+FROM dark_vessels;
+SQL
+
+#===================================================================
+# PART 6: 사이클 로그 (직전 6분)
+#===================================================================
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "PART 6: 사이클 로그 (최근 6분)"
+echo "================================================================="
+journalctl -u kcg-ai-prediction --since '6 minutes ago' --no-pager 2>/dev/null | \
+  grep -E 'analysis cycle:|lightweight analysis:|pipeline dark:|event_generator:|kpi_writer:|stats_aggregator|enrich|transship|ERROR|Traceback' | \
+  tail -20
+
+#===================================================================
+# PART 7: 해역별 + 위험도 교차 (운영 지표)
+#===================================================================
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "PART 7: 해역별 × 위험도 교차표"
+echo "================================================================="
+$PSQL_TABLE << 'SQL'
+SELECT zone_code,
+       count(*) total,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE is_dark) dark,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE risk_level='CRITICAL') crit,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE risk_level='HIGH') high,
+       round(avg(risk_score)::numeric, 1) avg_risk,
+       count(*) FILTER (WHERE transship_suspect) transship
+FROM kcg.vessel_analysis_results
+WHERE analyzed_at > now() - interval '5 minutes'
+GROUP BY zone_code ORDER BY total DESC;
+SQL
+
+echo ""
+echo "================================================================="
+echo "END OF SNAPSHOT $STAMP"
+echo "================================================================="
+
+} > "$OUT" 2>&1
+
+echo "[diag] $(date '+%H:%M:%S') saved: $OUT ($(wc -l < "$OUT") lines)"
+
+sleep $INTERVAL_SEC
+done